Prices follow demand – Business – Kommersant

Relatively stable news background of the last two months has led to a slight recovery in demand in the markets of new buildings in the largest cities. But this has not yet led to a noticeable increase in the cost of housing. Market prices are stagnant, and three-quarters of the capital’s developers offer discounts to consumers. Consumer behavior in the near future will continue to be determined by general economic and geopolitical factors, market participants warn. They do not expect a rise in real estate prices in the short term.

The average cost of new buildings in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) at the beginning of February amounted to 140 thousand rubles, having increased by 1.1% over the month. Such data is provided by CIAN.Analytics. The experts of “Etazhy” note an increase in the cost of new buildings in Russia as a whole by 0.3% per month, up to 101.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m. The value of February last year exceeds the figure by 9%. The average cost of a lot in the country, according to Avito Real Estate, is now 5.6 million rubles. Over the month, this indicator decreased by 1.4%, although it increased by 6% over the year.

Most noticeableaccording to CIAN.Analytics, the average cost of supply in the segment of new buildings has increased over the month in Omsk — by 9.8%, up to 106.3 thousand rubles. per sq. But, given that this value is lower than in February last year by 4.6%, we are talking more about a significant change in the structure of supply. In Samara analysts also note a monthly increase of 8.4%, up to 118.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Although CIAN.Analytics traditionally consider the dynamics in the largest markets, with a large volume of primary supply, to be more indicative. So, in St. Petersburg over the month, new buildings fell in price by 2.1%, to 230.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Avito Real Estate also notes a decrease in the average cost of a lot in outskirts of Moscow by 3.5% per month, up to 7.1 million rubles.

Within the old borders of Moscow the average cost of new buildings in the mass segment, according to Best-Novostroy, is now 289.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. For a month, the indicator has not changed, and for the year it increased by only 2%. Irina Dobrokhotova, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Best Novostroy, states that the situation on the market is determined by a decrease in purchasing power and a variety of discounts offered by three-quarters of developers. Developers take a flexible position, in particular, against the backdrop of an increase in supply. The total volume of the current exposure on the market of old Moscow in Best Novostroy is estimated at 51.6 thousand lots. Over the month, the indicator increased by 2.2%, over the year – by 58.5%.

The data of CIAN.Analytics also testify to the continuing growth in the number of discounts. If a year earlier in the capital region they were offered at 6% of lots, now they are at 28%.

“The biggest discounts are provided for deals without mortgages,” says Alexei Popov, head of CIAN.Analitiki. At the same time, Sales Director of “Etazhy” Sergey Zaitsev believes that the activity of buyers now generally corresponds to the figure for the same period last year. Mr. Popov, in turn, points out that in January the activity of users of the service in terms of viewing new ads was one third higher than in December. Dmitry Alekseev, head of primary and suburban real estate at Avito Nedvizhimost, is inclined to associate this revival with a relatively stable news background in the last couple of months.

The recovery in demand is confirmed by the dynamics of supply. Thus, Alexey Popov points out that 12% fewer lots are now available on the largest regional markets than a month earlier. Dmitry Alekseev estimates the reduction at 8.3%. Although if we compare the figure with the same period last year, we are already talking about an increase of 51.7%. Despite this, Mr. Zaitsev believes that in many large cities one can speak of a shortage of affordable supply at the final stage of readiness.

Although February and March, according to Mr. Popov, are traditionally quite an active season for the segment of new buildings, he does not expect a significant change in prices for them. Developers, according to the expert, will continue the practice of active discounting: “this approach allows you to keep nominal prices, while selling the amount of the discount.” Irina Dobrokhotova states that economic and geopolitical factors continue to strongly influence the market for new buildings: they shape the mood of buyers and demand. And in some locations, in turn, they can fluctuate, adjusting to the market conditions, Mr. Zaitsev notes.

Alexandra Mertsalova