Preferential mortgage will revise parameters – Kommersant FM
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The preferential mortgage program will be revised this year. Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin announced this at the end of December. Subsidized loans with a reduced rate will not be available to everyone: they will continue to operate in regions with low demand for housing. The authorities have not yet specified which ones. The government hopes to preserve family, Far Eastern and IT mortgages. The Central Bank also advocated providing targeted preferential loans. In its current form, the program will be valid until July 1, although the conditions for it have changed not in favor of clients. How will this affect the market? Elena Ivanova will tell you.
The authorities began tightening conditions for preferential mortgages at the end of December, although many analysts were confident that the situation would be under control at least until March. Now in Moscow and St. Petersburg, at 8% per annum, you can only borrow a studio or one-room apartment – the loan amount for all regions has been limited to 6 million rubles. And the down payment was raised to 30%. The program required additional subsidies from the budget in the fall of 2023, recalled independent expert Semyon Novoprudsky:
“Preferential mortgages are becoming quite a big problem for the financial market and the state, because in October 2023 the government was forced to urgently allocate almost 100 billion rubles. to finance three of the four preferential mortgage programs because the limits were exhausted. According to the largest banks, already in September, for the first time in history, at least half of all mortgage loans were issued under preferential mortgages.”
The positive effect of preferential loans has been exhausted, Kommersant FM’s interlocutors agree. The Central Bank sees signs of a bubble in the market. For credit institutions, such portfolio assets become toxic. Sovcombank, for example, has established a de facto protective down payment for subsidized mortgages – 50%. Sber acted differently – the bank will issue housing loans only from accredited developers. And they will have to pay an increased commission. For example, for a mortgage at 8% it will be 7.5% of the loan amount. Developers will want to shift the burden onto clients, but this will only be partially possible, says Shamil Kochekaev, director of the head office of BEST-Real Estate:
“There is no place to increase the value of a property on the primary market for a long time now. On average, primary goods are sold at 15-20% higher than the real market value. Your collateral may sometimes be worth less than the collateral itself. Any seller will raise the price of his product until people stop buying it. Then prices will begin to gradually decrease.”
Developers, in turn, are highly dependent on the demand generated by preferential programs. In 2024, sales may decline, followed by prices on the primary market, says Artem Tsogoev, a member of the board of directors of the Simple Estate investment platform:
“If we are talking about “comfort” and economy class, for example, in Moscow, then sales may decrease by 20-30%. We will de facto repeat the picture that emerged in 2022. We saw big discounts from developers, and they were already a drop in prices, but it was simply expressed in the form of discounts. In 2022, discounts reached 25% in some cases.”
In November, Dom.RF recorded a record volume of unsold housing in the country – more than 70 thousand square meters. The situation is not uniform across regions. In Moscow, vacant space can be sold in three years; in Samara or Krasnodar it will take 4.5 years. New measures by the authorities have cooled demand at the moment, but in the future they threaten more serious consequences, suggests Oleg Samoilov, an honorary member of the Guild of Realtors:
“As soon as the market begins to decline in prices, the collateral depreciates in value. Any apartment, moving from the primary to the secondary market, immediately noticeably loses in value. The head of the Central Bank named the figure – 42%. I don’t see such a gap between the primary and secondary, but I would estimate it quite confidently at 20%.
In December, according to the Analytical Credit Rating Agency, demand for mortgages remained “contrary to normal logic.” But in 2024, experts expect the issuance rate to halve. Preferential mortgages, judging by statements from the authorities, will become available to a much smaller number of clients. And market rates sometimes reach 20%. And the forecasts of Kommersant FM’s interlocutors are disappointing: the Central Bank is unlikely to decide to reduce the key rate, on which loans depend, in the first half of the year.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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