Preferential mortgage crushed – Newspaper Kommersant No. 205 (7406) dated 11/03/2022

The average loan size on preferential mortgages decreased in October to a minimum since May – 4.8 million rubles. The drop was facilitated by the closure of subsidized programs in partnership with developers after the Central Bank clearly stated the risks for customers and plans to regulate the segment. In the absence of a preferential mortgage, banks will focus on the family program, where the limit is spent by less than half, in contrast to the preferential one (70.5%). However, customer demand is shifting to the secondary market, experts believe.

The average check on preferential mortgages for new buildings at 7% fell to the lowest value since mid-May – 4.77 million rubles, according to Kommersant’s calculations based on Dom.RF weekly statistics. In the last three weeks, the average check has been consistently below 5 million rubles, while in previous weeks, up to the May minimum, it exceeded this level on average. Sberbank, which has a 47% share of loans already issued under the program, has a similar trend: the average check in the last week of October fell to 4 million rubles, the lowest since the end of June.

The decrease in the average check for preferential mortgages may be due to the closure of mortgage subsidy programs at ultra-low rates (about 0.1%), which banks did together with developers, says Ekaterina Zhzhenova, head of the Mortgage Lending Development Directorate at Uralsib Bank. Most of all, such projects were developed just within the framework of preferential mortgage programs, since in this case subsidies came out cheaper for the developer, she notes. In fact, this led to an increase in the check on the market, but in the last two months the regulator has paid close attention to this segment (see Kommersant on September 17). “After the statement of the Central Bank, banks began to close such programs,” Ms. Zhzhenova explains. Against this background, contract prices in the primary market declined.

Other reasons also contributed to the decrease in the average check. This may be due to a decline in effective demand, admits independent expert Olga Ulyanova. “Where previously customers could claim a two-room apartment, they buy a one-room apartment, instead of an apartment in a more “expensive” area, they choose a more modest one,” she says. In addition, premium clients who have taken out large check mortgages are currently generally not considering freezing their funds through real estate investments. In addition, geopolitical tensions once again forced wealthy clients to consider the prospects for their geographical location, the possibility of moving. Therefore, with the acquisition of real estate, they are now unlikely to be in a hurry, the expert believes.

2.5 trillion rubles have already been issued under preferential mortgages. loans (the percentage of limit execution in the whole market is 70.5%). There are two months left before the end of the program. But the banks have already begun to roll it back. This week, the acceptance of applications was suspended by Rosbank, which issued 36.2 billion rubles under this program. from the limit of 44.7 billion rubles. Of the top 20 mortgage banks, Raiffeisenbank (99.9%), RNKB (93.74%), Bank St. Petersburg (90.1%) and Ak Bars (90.23%) have almost exhausted their limit.

The largest players – Sberbank and VTB, which took the main share of the limit allocated by the government, fulfilled the limit by 73.2% and 65.9%, respectively. Rosbank believes that “the goals of the state program before its planned completion at the end of the year can be achieved in the most complete way through a more efficient process of redistributing limits, including those not mastered by market players.”

The cycle for entering a loan transaction for the purchase of a new building is usually about a month, so in the near future other players may also suspend the collection of applications for preferential mortgages, Rusipoteka’s chief expert Sergey Gordeiko expects. Banks want to avoid a situation where, when the limit is exhausted, they will have to refuse already approved loans. “Individual large banks, whose limit has a reserve, can lend until the last day,” he notes.

In this case, the replacement of loans will go to family mortgages, which gradually won their market share: “If before the ratio of preferential and family mortgages was 70% to 30%, now the situation will change in the opposite direction. And since the preferential mortgage will most likely not be extended, the family mortgage will continue to play a leading role, and all banks are ready for this,” concludes Mr. Gordeiko. Unlike subsidized mortgages, according to Dom.RF, banks spent less than 50% of the limit on family mortgages. Client demand is shifting towards the secondary market, Ms. Zhzhenova says: “Now the situation is slightly pushing people to take apartments in new buildings, as clients have concerns about the completion of construction in the face of uncertainty.”

Olga Sherunkova