Overview and forecast of prices for new buildings for March 2023
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The declining activity of buyers does not allow developers to raise the cost of new buildings: housing prices in major cities are stagnating. Business is trying to influence the situation by reducing the output of new projects. In the future, this may indeed contribute to narrowing the exposure, but there are no preconditions for price growth on the market yet. Developers are still forced to attract buyers through discounts, although the possibilities of this tool are limited.
The average declared cost of new buildings in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) increased by 0.2% over the month, to 139.9 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Such data is provided by experts from Cyan.Analytics. The dynamics, according to their estimates, turned out to be less pronounced than the values in January and December, when the growth was 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively. According to “Etazhi”, the average cost of new buildings in Russia as a whole in March amounted to 102.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m, an increase over the month by 0.4%. In “Avito Nedvizhimost” the average cost of a lot in the primary market of Russia is estimated at 5.9 million rubles, for the month, as well as for the year, the figure increased by 4%.
The most pronounced price increase for new buildings per month in “Cyan.Analytics” was noticed on the market Krasnodar. The average cost here increased by 3.1% to 141.7 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Ekaterinburg the dynamics was 2%, up to 125 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Analysts of “Etazhy” note an increase in the average cost of 1.3% for new buildings in Novosibirsk, up to 101 thousand rubles. per sq. m. Simultaneously in Samaraaccording to Cyan.Analytics, the average price of new buildings per month decreased by 4.7%, up to 113.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In the “Floors” also pay attention to decline indicator in Chelyabinsk by 0.4%, up to 71 thousand rubles. per sq. m.
In Moscow new buildings now cost an average of 316.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m, indicate in “Cyan.Analytics”. Over the month, this figure rose by 1.1%. In the Moscow region for the same period there was an increase of 1.4%, up to 166.4 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In St. Petersburg the average nominal value of new buildings is 231.6 thousand rubles, in the Leningrad region – 145.2 thousand rubles. Over the month, the first indicator increased by 0.4%, while the second decreased by 0.9%.
Alexey Popov, head of Cyan.Analytics, points out that 270,000 ads for the sale of lots in buildings under construction are now available to users, the figure has grown by 2% over the month. “But this is due to the restoration of the volume of unloading offers after the New Year holidays,” he says.
In general, according to the expert, the growth rate of supply is declining.
Thus, in the Moscow agglomeration in the first two months of the year, sales started in 65 buildings with a total area of 1.01 million square meters. m. “This is about 40% less than the average rate of output of new products over the past two years,” says Mr. Popov. The activity of developers has decreased, and in the future this may lead to a decrease in the volume of supply, agrees Sergey Zaitsev, sales director of Etazhi.
At the same time, the demand for apartments in the primary market also decreased markedly: by 15.9% per month, and by 35.3% per year, says Dmitry Alekseev, head of the primary direction of Avito Real Estate. The expert notes a negative trend in almost all major cities. In monthly terms, the most significant decline in consumer activity was in Samara, Chelyabinsk and Ufa – more than 50%.
Alexey Popov does not rule out that nominal prices for new buildings will gradually increase due to the reduction of new supply: “Such a trend is already observed in some cities.” The limiting factor, according to the expert, will remain the low activity of buyers against the backdrop of rising prices for mortgage products. And the main tool of advertising campaigns on the part of developers are discounts, he notes. Developers often have no other choice, says Dmitry Alekseev. If local growth in demand, according to the expert, is possible, then globally it will continue to decline. “But the potential of this tool to revive demand is also not unlimited: the sales economy was calculated at certain prices,” he warns. Against this background, Mr. Zaitsev expects that in the medium term, the dynamics of prices for new buildings will continue to balance in the near-zero zone.
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