Overview and forecast of prices for apartments in new buildings for March 2023

The low activity of potential buyers and the growing volume of unsold housing are forcing developers to take a restrained approach to launching a new proposal on the market, reducing activity. Such a policy leads to an adjustment in average prices in the largest regional markets. But analysts do not yet see the prerequisites for a real increase in the value of real estate, noting that buyers are becoming more interested in the secondary offer.

The average cost of new buildings in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in March amounted to 140.7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Over the month, the indicator increased by 0.8%, surpassing the dynamics of February – 0.2%. Such data is given in CIAN.Analytics. But experts are not yet ready to talk about the formation of a new trend – the growth is partly due to small volumes of input: “The fewer new products on the market, the fewer lots with low prices, the average price is growing.” In “Etazhy”, the average cost of new buildings in Russia as a whole is estimated at 102 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. For the month, the indicator remained practically unchanged, and for the year it increased by only 0.9%. According to the estimates of Avito Nedvizhimost, the average cost of new buildings in Russia decreased by 0.5% over the month, by 0.7% over the year, to 131.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.

Pronounced decrease the average cost of new buildings per month, the experts of CIAN.Analysts noticed in Novosibirsk: the indicator decreased by 4.5%, to 115.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Ufa the decrease was 0.9%, to 106.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Simultaneously in Krasnoyarsk first real estate per month has risen in price by 2.8%, up to 120.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In “Floors” they note an increase of 1.53% in the average cost of new buildings in Saratov, up to 57 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Moscow, according to the calculations of CIAN.Analitiki, new buildings cost an average of 316.1 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, in St. Petersburg – 231.2 thousand rubles. Over the month, the first indicator increased by 1.1%, the second – decreased by 0.2%.

According to CIAN.Analytics, 288,000 ads are now on display in new buildings in 18 of Russia’s largest regional markets. Alexei Popov, head of CIAN.Analytics, points out that the figure grew by 6% over the month, despite the restrained policy of developers. “In the first two months of the year, in the agglomerations of Moscow and St. Petersburg, sales began in 90 new buildings with a total area of ​​1.27 million square meters. m is 40% and 42% respectively lower than the average output rates of new products last year,” he says. The head of the primary direction of Avito Real Estate, Dmitry Alekseev, says that over the month the total volume of primary supply in Russia increased by 12.8%, and by 91.8% over the year.

Announcements of launching new projects on the market have become noticeably smaller, notes Sergey Zaitsev, Sales Director of Etazhi. The expert considers the dynamics to be logical, taking into account the rather high volume of construction and the low level of supply sold out. This, according to the expert, is what is holding back the rise in prices: “Developers understand that any growth now can have a critical impact on demand.” The activity of buyers, Mr. Zaitsev calls restrained: the number of applications for the selection of objects at the level of February. Mr. Popov speaks about the same on the basis of potential demand metrics.

Dmitry Alekseev adds that the activity of buyers is now 17.4% lower than in the same period last year. Although in the secondary market, according to him, on the contrary, growth is observed.

Against this background, market participants do not predict a global change in trends in the segment of new buildings. Alexey Popov expects that prices in the primary markets of the largest cities will continue to stagnate in the near future. The dynamics of demand, according to him, depends on the adaptation of developers to the gradual withdrawal from the market of programs with reduced mortgage rates. Sergei Zaitsev also assumes that prices will hold their current positions, allowing slight fluctuations. The expert notes that the share of secondary and suburban real estate is now growing in the total volume of demand.

Alexandra Mertsalova