Officials sat in the places of IT people – Newspaper Kommersant No. 239 (7440) dated 12/23/2022
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Against the backdrop of declining demand for offices, the structure of demand in Moscow has noticeably changed. The share of previously leading IT companies decreased three times over the year due to the departure of employees abroad, and industry and government agencies are increasing their presence. The latter will form the demand for offices in the coming years, consultants predict.
According to Nikoliers, 48% of the demand for offices in Moscow this year came from companies in the manufacturing and mining sectors, government agencies and NGOs. A year earlier, these sectors together accounted for 19% of absorption. And the share of IT and telecommunications for the year decreased from 30% to 9%. Asterus calculated that the IT and digital segment could reduce the share in demand for offices from 30% to 18-20%, the share of state-owned companies will increase from 2% to 8-10%, and the extractive sector – from 2% to 7-8%.
Christina Nedrya, Head of Valuation and Analytics at Stone Hedge, confirms that state-owned companies and the real sector have become the driver of demand this year.
Demand is also used by small premises, which are occupied by small and medium-sized businesses, she notes. According to Ekaterina Belova, head of the office space department at IBC Real Estate, there was high instability in all sectors. The companies negotiated, but decisions were made with difficulty, many deals fell through already at the signing stage, she points out.
The redistribution of demand for offices occurs against the backdrop of a general decline in interest in such real estate. According to NF Group estimates, in Moscow in 2022 the area of premises that entered the market will exceed the volume of commissioned and rented premises by 150-160 thousand square meters. m. Such indicators are noted for the first time in the history of observations, analysts point out. In 2021, according to NF Group estimates, the area of commissioned and leased offices exceeded the number of vacant ones by 700,000 sq. m. m.
Olesya Malakhova, deputy director of the office real estate department at Nikoliers, attributes the decline in demand from IT companies to the decision of some international players in this area to leave the Russian market, adjustment of development plans or the transfer of part of their employees abroad.
Kirill Babichenko, head of the CORE.XP owner services department, adds that many employees have been transferred to remote work. “Now it is difficult to determine the proportion of staff who will return to work in the office, so companies find it difficult to predict the space they need and take a break,” he says. According to the Ministry of Digital Development, during the two waves of emigration this year, about 100 thousand IT specialists left Russia and did not return, of which 80% continue to work for Russian companies.
Denis Bobkov, head of marketing and analytics at Asterus, adds that the demand for offices has also decreased this year in the professional services and consulting sector. If in 2021 such structures in Moscow formed 15-20% of transactions, then this year – up to 7-8%. Mr. Bobkov also connects the dynamics with the departure of international players. According to Nikoliers, the share of tenants and buyers from the professional services sector in the office market fell from 19% to 13% over the year.
Denis Bobkov draws attention to the decrease in activity in the office market of retail chains.
Asterus estimates that retail will account for about 3-4% of transactions this year, compared to 6-7% in 2021. According to the expert, foreign players also left the market in this segment, and Russian companies faced a reduction in consumer activity and logistical difficulties, he notes. According to Infoline, in the third quarter of 2022, retail turnover in the non-food segments decreased, and sales of food and consumer goods grew in money only due to inflation. According to Infoline estimates, the total revenue of the ten largest FMCG networks in the third quarter increased by 17.9% to 1.97 trillion rubles. But quarter-on-quarter growth rates fell by 5 percentage points. Over the year, retail trade turnover in the Russian Federation may be reduced by almost 10%, Infoline predicted.
In 2023, Ekaterina Belova is waiting for the continuation of the departure of international companies and the release of high-quality offices. And companies with state participation will be the main drivers of demand in the market for another three years, she believes. Olesya Malakhova also admits a resumption of growth in demand for offices from IT companies when their employees return from abroad.
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