NRA estimated banks’ commission losses from the digital ruble at 45–95 billion rubles

The introduction of the digital ruble may affect the profitability of banks in the long term, according to a review by the National Rating Agency (NRA). According to the author of the review, managing director of the agency Sergei Gushchin, starting from 2027, the maximum losses of the banking system from the introduction of the digital ruble could amount to 45–95 billion rubles. commission income.

According to an NRA review cited “Vedomosti”, after the introduction of the digital ruble, the profitability of banks will decrease, since credit institutions will lose commission income from processing card payments. At the same time, the average cost of attracting liquidity will increase.

The maximum losses of the banking system from the introduction of the third form of national currency, according to Sergei Gushchin, could range from 45 billion to 95 billion rubles. commission income or about 8–10% of banks’ total net profit. Mr. Gushchin made this forecast based on the consolidated financial results of banks at the end of September and the digital ruble penetration level of 8–10%.

At the same time, it follows from the review that gradually the banks’ losses can be compensated by income from the sale of new products, including those based on smart contracts and cashbacks from retailers. In addition, new technologies will allow leaders among Russian banks not only not to lose, but to increase commission expenses, notes Sergei Gushchin.

The Bank of Russia began work on creating a digital ruble in 2021. The main provisions of the law establishing the legal norms for the introduction of a third form of national currency came into force on August 1, 2023. In the same month, piloting of the digital ruble began in real transactions for individuals and legal entities. Operations until 2025 will take place in test mode.

Bye to the special platform of the Bank of Russia connected only 13 credit institutions. The head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, noted that the use of the digital ruble will be voluntary.

Read more about how banks estimate the costs of introducing a new form of national currency in the Kommersant FM article. “The digital ruble costs a pretty penny”.

Milena Kostereva