Nothing to borrow – Newspaper Kommersant No. 239 (7440) dated 12/23/2022

According to the results of the first weeks of December, some banks record growth in the retail lending market at the level of the previous year. However, it is mainly secured by mortgage loans. The most risky unsecured consumer loans are still issued with caution. And some loan products are not in demand this December due to the lack of consumer goods, as, for example, it happens with car loans.

Despite the fact that until recently bankers and experts feared that the traditional pre-New Year high season in the retail lending market would not take place this year (see Kommersant of November 14), the first half of December nevertheless showed some revival. This was also facilitated by the realization of pent-up demand, which occurred just in December, formed during the period of shocks in the market, notes Nadezhda Karavaeva, junior director for banking ratings at Expert RA.

For example, in the first two weeks of December, VTB Bank issued 83,000 retail loans in the amount of 107 billion rubles. This is 30% more than in the same period in November, and is in line with last year. The main increase was provided, however, by mortgage loans: in the first two weeks of the month, VTB issued mortgages for more than 54 billion rubles. (+60% in monthly comparison). The demand of VTB customers for cash loans in the first two weeks of December increased by 12% compared to the beginning of November this year and by 20% – from the beginning of December last year, amounting to 50 billion rubles. Positive attitude and in Sberbank. “The portfolio of consumer loans in Sberbank reached 3.4 trillion rubles. This year alone, we expect to issue such loans for almost 2 trillion rubles,” Sergey Shirokov, director of the Borrow and Save division of Sberbank, cites the data.

But not all banks are so optimistic about the current December. In Rosbank, for example, in mortgage lending, they do not observe an increase in the volume of loans. The bank also does not see high seasonal demand in car loans. “There are few cars on the market, a significant increase in deliveries in the next month is not expected, as well as pre-New Year sales,” explains Maxim Lukyanovich, Deputy Director for Retail Business at Rosbank. In consumer unsecured lending, there is an increase in loans in December, he notes, but he considers it short-term and seasonal. “The demand for consumer loans in the pre-New Year period is stable, but the consumer loan market will not return to the dynamics of the end of 2021 – the beginning of 2022 until the first quarter of 2023,” Rustam Rafikov, head of the credit products department at PSB, agrees.

Moreover, banks are in no hurry to relax their scoring policy, which was tightened during the crisis. HCF-Bank recorded an increase in the number of loan applications for non-targeted cash loans and POS loans over the past two weeks. However, the bank pays special attention to the quality of its clients, emphasizes Andrey Spivakov, its Chief Executive Officer. The demand from individuals for loans in December traditionally grows, and December 2022 was no exception, despite the fears of bankers (see Kommersant of November 14). BCI “Scoring Bureau” also records an increase in demand for all types of credit products, with the exception of car loans, said Oleg Lagutkin, director general of the bureau. However, it is hardly possible to speak of a complete recovery of the lending market. “The current growth is traditionally associated with the seasonal factor, which will last until December 26–28,” he explains. “In addition, lenders are trying to prevent a sharp increase in possible losses in the future on loans issued during such periods.” The risks are greater in the unsecured lending segment, and the risks of delinquency are increasing due to the uncertainty in the development of the economy next year. Therefore, the growth in lending in December was mainly due to the issuance of previously approved mortgage loans, emphasizes Natalia Bogomolova, an analyst at NRA bank ratings.

Polina Trifonova