Next door to Ukraine, chicken production is falling, while prices are rising
[ad_1]
In two regions bordering Ukraine – Voronezh and Kursk regions – for five months of this year, the production of chicken, one of the main sources of protein in the diet of Russians, has decreased. Although output volumes slightly increased in the Belgorod and Bryansk regions, this did not contribute to lower prices. The entire central part of the country depends on the supply of poultry meat from the border regions, where products have recently become noticeably more expensive.
Of the four regions bordering Ukraine, in January-May 2023, production fell in the Voronezh region – by 2% year-on-year, to 48.9 thousand tons in live weight, and in the Kursk region – by 4%, to 54.8 thousand tons, follows from the calculations available to Kommersant of a number of market participants and industry associations. At the same time, in the Belgorod region, which has been in the zone of intense hostilities since the beginning of spring, output increased by 1% yoy, to 329.5 thousand tons, in the Bryansk region – by 13% yoy, to 139.1 thousand tons, which, according to market participants, may indicate a low base of last year. These regions account for about half of all chicken production in the center of the country.
Market participants interviewed by Kommersant do not officially comment on the situation. But sources in the companies speak of a difficult situation in the agribusiness of the regions. Among the main reasons is the complicated logistics due to the lack of vehicles. The situation is aggravated by the fact that companies, including those in the agricultural sector, are forced, by order of local authorities, to allocate some of the special equipment with drivers for military purposes (see Kommersant of June 30). “In addition, production is threatened by a growing shortage of workers,” says Sergei Yushin, head of the National Meat Association.
The reduction in production led to an increase in the cost of poultry meat in retail. From the analysis of market participants, it follows that in the Belgorod region in the Magnit chain, chicken is now 3% more expensive than a month ago, in X5 Group stores – by 13%, in Bryansk – by 7% and 8%, respectively, in Voronezh – by 2% and 12%. In these regions, the average carcass price was 170–180 rubles. for 1 kg. Magnit and X5 did not answer Kommersant’s questions. A Kommersant source in one of the major chains says that from June 23 to June 29, chicken sales in physical terms in Belgorod, Kursk, Bryansk increased by 1-1.6% compared to the previous week, in Voronezh – fell by 8.8 %.
In addition to these regions, prices are growing in the Ryazan region (for Magnit – by 11% mom, for X5 – by 12-13%) and in Tver (by 11% and 13%, respectively). In general, in the center of the country from June 19 to June 25, a broiler carcass was sold in wholesale for an average of 171 rubles. per 1 kg, which is 20% higher year on year. These regions, as well as Moscow and the Moscow region, where, according to market participants, the average retail price of a carcass exceeded 200 rubles. per 1 kg, seriously depend on the supply of poultry meat from the border regions of the country.
The reason for the rise in prices in the center of Russia is not only a decrease in production in the border regions, but also in a difficult epizootic situation, for example, with bird flu, says Ilya Bereznyuk, managing partner of Agro & Food Communications. According to him, in January-May, production in the Moscow region has noticeably decreased. According to market participants, in January-May of this year, output in this region fell by 10% yoy, to 85.6 thousand tons.
Chicken is getting more expensive all over the country. On Wednesday, Rosstat reported that from June 27 to July 3 in 63 regions of the country, prices for this meat increased by 0.1-5.8% compared to the previous week. Galina Bobyleva, Director General of Rosptitsesoyuz, calls these data relevant. The Ministry of Agriculture told Kommersant that the situation with prices on the market is stable and for most positions the increase in producer prices corresponds to the rate of inflation.
In January-May, chicken production in Russia increased by only 1.9% yoy, to 2.73 million tons. “A number of companies have decided to adjust their production plans so as not to generate losses,” says Sergey Yushin. According to him, some time ago, wholesale prices for broiler meat were declining, which led to a decrease in profitability. Ilya Bereznyuk believes that the reaction of buyers will be obvious: “They will either significantly reduce the consumption of this type of meat, or switch to pork.”
Poultry meat is now one of the main sources of protein in the diet of Russians. According to the National Union of Pig Breeders, it accounts for 44.3% of the total consumption of all types of meat.
[ad_2]
Source link
