New buildings set to stagnation – Business – Kommersant

The main increase in prices for new buildings in the largest regional markets of Russia at the end of 2022 fell on its first four months, while now the average indicators are stagnating. This process is accompanied by reduced demand and a gradual increase in supply. Such dynamics in the market will continue in January-February, stimulating developers to provide discounts on lots. Although the market does not exclude that by the end of 2023, housing will rise in price at the rate of inflation.

The average cost of new buildings in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in December amounted to 138.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Over the month, the average increased by 0.2%, over the year – by 15%. Such data are provided by CIAN.Analytics experts, indicating that almost the entire annual increase in 2022 was provided by its first four months.

Since April, prices began to stagnate. Against this background, the annual growth in the cost of housing in 2022 was much less pronounced than in 2020 (by 29%) and 2021 (by 33%).

In “Etazhy”, the average cost of new buildings in Russia as a whole is estimated at 101.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. For the month, the indicator, according to analysts, decreased by 0.1%, for the year – increased by 11.2%. The average cost of a lot in a Russian new building, according to Avito Nedvizhimost, is now 5.9 million rubles, which is 8.7% higher than in December last year. But over the month, the figure fell by 0.2%.

The most pronounced decrease in prices for new buildings over the month, according to CIAN.Analytics, occurred in Kazan, where the average value decreased by 6.4%, to 176.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Although compared to December last year, the value increased by 34%. The only city where the cost of primary housing decreased in annual terms was Omsk. New buildings, according to analysts, are now worth 96.8 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m is 18% lower than December 2021 and 2.5% behind November 2022. The most noticeable monthly increase in prices was noticed by the analysts of “Etazhy” in Tyumen. The average rate here increased by 2.33% to 108.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.

AT Moscow, according to CIAN.Analitiki, the average cost of new buildings at the end of the year amounted to 318.2 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. For the month, the indicator decreased by 0.6%, for the year – increased by 5%. AT St. Petersburg over the month, the cost of new buildings has not changed, and over the year it has increased by 18%, to 235.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. The average cost of a lot in the primary market in Moscow at the end of the year amounted to 13 million rubles, in St. Petersburg – 8.8 million rubles, according to calculations by Avito Real Estate. Over the year, the first value decreased by 12.4%, while the second one increased by 19.8%. The negative dynamics in the first case may be due, in particular, to the downward trend in the average area of ​​lots, which in Moscow appears more brightly.

The total volume of supply in the primary market in Russia, according to the head of the primary direction of “Avito Real Estate” Dmitry Alekseev, is now 59.8% higher than in the same period last year. The exposure continues to grow.

So, according to the estimates of the head of CIAN.Analytics, Alexei Popov, the number of ads on the site increased by 7% over the month, a similar trend was observed in November compared to October. The expert considers the dynamics to be seasonal: “Builders are trying to bring out their new products against the backdrop of the pre-New Year growth in buyer activity.” Demand, according to Mr. Alekseev, is 37.1% behind last year. Negative dynamics is noticeable in most major cities, he points out.

Alexey Popov does not rule out that the market recovery will slow down in January-February. This, according to the expert, will be facilitated compromise solution on preferential mortgages and the gradual voluntary-compulsory curtailment by banks of programs with “zero” interest rates.

Mr. Popov does not rule out that market conditions may force developers to adjust their marketing campaigns: “Potential buyers will be “sold” a discount on the lot, and not the amount of the mortgage payment.”

In January, there is a traditional seasonal decline in demand on the market, which will be superimposed on adaptation to new conditions for lending under a preferential program, Sergey Zaitsev, director of the Etazhi sales department, notes. The volume of supply against the backdrop of moderate demand, in his opinion, will grow, but developers will continue to hold back prices. Metrium Managing Partner Nadezhda Korkka also does not rule out that in the first half of 2023 the number of transactions in the primary market will decrease compared to the same period in 2022. Although in general, at the end of the year, she expects a positive trend. Prices in Moscow, according to expert forecasts, will grow at the level of inflation.

Alexandra Mertsalova