New buildings have discounts – Business – Kommersant

Average prices for new buildings are decreasing due to the fact that almost half of the supply in them is exhibited at a discount, the size of which has reached 10%. Fears about the end of the preferential mortgage program have begun to warm up demand, but this does not affect prices yet – they are held back by the growing volume of supply. For the first time in a long time, fluctuations in the cost of new buildings are beginning to depend on market factors, and not external shocks.

The average cost of primary real estate in the 18 largest regional markets of Russia (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in early December amounted to 137.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. The indicator practically did not change compared to the previous month: a decrease of less than 0.1%. Growth compared to December last year is 18.8%. Such data is provided by Cyan.Analytics. According to the estimates of “Etazhi”, new buildings on average in Russia fell by 1% over the month, to 101.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. At the same time, this value exceeds the figure for the same period last year by 14.6%. In Avito Real Estate, the average cost of a lot in Russian new buildings is estimated at 5.9 million rubles. Over the month, it decreased by 0.5%, but over the year it increased by 13.4%.

However, Director of Sales Department “Etazhy” Sergei Zaytsev calls the situation in the primary real estate market ambiguous due to the discussion of the termination of preferential mortgages next year. “Some developers began to actively stimulate demand, trying to have time to sell objects under the program, while others, on the contrary, felt an increase in activity and decided to raise prices,” he explains.

At the same time, according to Mr. Zaitsev, programs have appeared that provide for the sale without a down payment, which involve an increase in the cost of the lot. Such offers also lead to an increase in the average price.

Although the principal moment for the market, the head of Cyan.Analitiki, Alexei Popov, calls the price reduction in key regions where the data is more structured. In Moscow, according to his calculations, new buildings fell in price by 1.7% over the month, to 320.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m, in outskirts of Moscow – minus 1.3%, up to 163.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In St. Petersburg dynamics are less pronounced. The average price in the primary market for the month decreased by 0.8% to 235.6 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In the Leningrad region — by 0.1%, up to 148.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. “With a high probability, the market as a whole, taking into account discounts, there is a more pronounced decrease in prices by 1-2% per month,” explains Mr. Popov. With discounts, according to his estimates, about 40% of the lots are exhibited, and in Avito Real Estate, the same figure is estimated at 54%. Developers are ready to provide a discount of 10%, while previously it was about 1%, adds Mr. Zaitsev.

Among the smaller regional markets, the most noticeable dynamics for the month, according to Cyan.Analytics, was In Volgograd, where the average cost of primary housing decreased by 3.7%, to 85.2 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In Ufa – minus 2.8%, up to 110.1 thousand rubles. per sq. m. In “Etazhy” pay attention to the reduction in the cost of new buildings in Khanty-Mansiysk by 1.4% per month, up to 106.3 thousand rubles. per sq. m.

Sergei Zaitsev estimates the increase in demand for new buildings in November by 20-25% compared to October, linking the dynamics with buyers’ fears about the end of state support for mortgages, restrictions on developers’ programs offering a “near-zero rate”. Alexey Popov believes that user activity has returned to the level of early September. Although the volume of supply, according to him, also increased by 7% over the month: this is due both to the launch of new projects and to the restoration of the rate of unloading ads. The head of the primary direction of Avito Nedvizhimost Dmitry Alekseev notes that the volume of primary exposure in Russia increased by 4.3% over the month and by 47.2% over the year. Demand, according to him, is almost one and a half times lower than last year.

Alexey Popov draws attention to the fact that in many regional markets this year, significantly fewer projects were launched than in the past. Because of this, the supply structure will gradually change, which will affect average prices.

At the same time, the expert draws attention to the fact that for the first time in a long time, the dynamics are influenced not by external events, but by internal factors. Among the key ones, he cites the final decision on subsidized mortgages: it can lead to both a short-term surge in activity and the preservation of stagnation trends. Against this background, price turbulence will persist until the end of the year, Mr. Zaitsev believes. Dmitry Alekseev adds that in December, developers will also try to further support demand through various special promotions and offers.

Alexandra Mertsalova