New buildings froze in anticipation – Business – Kommersant

The negative news background stimulated buyers to postpone some transactions in the primary real estate market and contributed to a general drop in demand, but so far has not led to a noticeable decrease in average prices. The cost of new buildings in the largest regional markets increased by 0.3% over the month. The volume of supply increased by 3%. Analysts do not rule out that developers will later react to the negative market conditions by revising their plans for the withdrawal of new projects and providing forced discounts. But the situation with demand will still be better than in spring, due to the availability of affordable mortgages.

The average cost of new buildings in the 18 largest regional markets of the country (16 million-plus cities, Moscow and Leningrad regions) in October amounted to 139 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. For the month, the indicator increased by 0.3%, compared to the same period last year – by 22%. Such data is provided by CIAN.Analytics. According to the calculations of the company “Etazhi”, in Russia as a whole, new buildings now cost an average of 100.8 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m, for the month this value increased by 1.9%.

Dynamics in the regional markets over the month turned out to be non-uniform. So, In Ekaterinburgaccording to the calculations of CIAN.Analytics, average cost new buildings in October decreased by 2.4% compared to September, to 118.4 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Nizhny Novgorod, a similar decrease amounted to 2.2%, to 135.3 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In St. Petersburg the primary offer decreased in price by 2.1%, to 237.5 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In “Etazhi” they note that new buildings in Krasnodar fell in price by an average of 0.75% per month, to 89.7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Although at the same time in Rostov-on-Don the average price increased by 1.92%, up to 86.7 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. In Kazanaccording to CIAN.Analytics, new buildings per month have risen in price by 1.3%, up to 178 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m.

In Moscow, according to CIAN.Analytics, new buildings now cost an average of 325.6 thousand rubles. for 1 sq. m. Over the month, this value increased by 0.3%, over the year – by 10%. Nadezhda Korkka, Managing Partner of Metrium, states that for the time being Moscow developers continue to hold prices, having not noticeably reacted to the general negative market situation. “But the real estate market is sluggish – we can see the impact in a few weeks,” she warns. In September, according to the expert, the total volume of initial supply amounted to 61 thousand flats and suites, since the beginning of the year the figure has grown by 40%.

The head of the primary direction of Avito Real Estate, Dmitry Alekseev, notes that in September, demand in the primary market increased by 3.2% compared to August. In Ekaterinburg the dynamics was 10%, in Rostov-on-Don – 9.2%. The Rosreestr data on registered equity participation agreements also testify to a slight increase: in Moscow in September, their number increased by 9%, in St. Petersburg — by 7%. But the September statistics do not take into account the reaction of consumers to the decision on partial mobilization: the data are given on the date of registration, due to the length of the process, it lags behind the actual date of the transaction by five to seven business days, explains the head of CIAN.Analytics Alexey Popov.

“The number of ad views and calls in the week after September 21 decreased by 20%, although in early October the indicators returned to the background values ​​of the summer and there was no collapse,” adds Mr. Popov.

Sergey Zaitsev, head of the Etazhi new building center, also noticed that the stupor, when some of the transactions were put on hold, did not last long. Activity has recovered, although demand is still 15% to 20% behind the first half of September, he notes.

The total volume of supply in the primary market is still showing a positive trend: according to CIAN.Analytics, the number of active ads in the 18 largest regional markets increased by 3% over the month, to 283,000. volumes of new cases, and sales volumes grew not so fast, Mr. Popov explains. But at the same time, developers, according to Sergey Zaitsev, have now adopted a policy of keeping existing prices: “There are discounts, but individual ones, for example, for an urgent entry into a deal.”

Alexey Popov calls uncertainty the main factor contributing to the decline in demand. Although the situation, according to him, is now better than in the spring, when protective mortgage rates were imposed on him. “The availability of relatively affordable loans in the short term should make it possible to avoid the March-May scenario of this year, when demand fell by half in absolute terms,” he suggests.

At the same time, Dmitry Alekseev expects developers to take a restrained approach to pricing in new projects. Although the activity of developers may be reduced.

Mr. Zaitsev does not rule out that they will adjust their plans based on conservative demand forecasts. The latter, according to the expert, will be 10-15% behind the level of the first half of the year. Alexey Perlin, general director of SMU-6 Investments, also does not rule out a reduction in the number of new projects, adding that discounts from developers will also become inevitable if the market begins to stagnate.

Alexandra Mertsalova