More dollars, urgent and different – Newspaper Kommersant No. 34 (7479) of 02/28/2023

Since March, the Moscow Exchange has been launching trading in futures contracts for the Turkish lira and the Hong Kong dollar. This will increase interest in the currencies of friendly countries that have already occupied a certain niche in the spot market. However, experts consider the appearance of the UAE dirham on the exchange trading more significant. Talk about their launch has been going on for more than a year, but has not yet reached a real embodiment.

The Moscow Exchange is going to launch from March 1 trading in settled futures contracts for the Turkish lira-Russian ruble and Hong Kong dollar-Russian ruble currency pairs. Their launch on the exchange is associated with the growing interest of clients in these currencies and it is believed that new instruments will be of interest to both institutional and private investors.

According to market participants interviewed by Kommersant, the emergence of new futures should push the development of currency pairs of friendly jurisdictions. According to Nikita Silkin, head of the department of the Internet broker “BCS World of Investments”, investors will be able to use contracts in their strategies to protect against currency risk, arbitrage, and also implement speculative ideas. The Expert Advisor expects significant trading volumes in the first weeks and expects long-term interest from clients.

According to the Moscow Exchange, this month the volume of trading in the Turkish lira on the spot market reached a record high, approaching 8 billion rubles. The trading volume of the Hong Kong dollar in February exceeded 7 billion rubles, since July last year it has been in the range of 4-11 billion rubles. per month.

Interest in the Turkish lira is associated with the growth of trade between the two countries, says Kirill Gorbunov, an analyst at Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company: trade turnover reached $70 billion last year, up from $33 billion in 2021. The expert believes that the transition to trading in national currencies also looks promising, but in the short term the idea looks doubtful – the Turkish lira devalues ​​against the dollar by tens of percent annually.

At the same time, the average number of transactions with the Hong Kong currency significantly exceeds the number of transactions with the lira – 1600 against 900 transactions. This difference, according to Mr. Gorbunov, is due to increased demand from individuals for HKD, since dozens of shares listed in Hong Kong are available on the SPB Exchange. The second factor of interest in the Hong Kong dollar is the reduction of part of the infrastructure risks.

In conditions of strong correlation with the US dollar, the currency is a safer alternative, says Kirill Gorbunov. However, Dmitry Alexandrov, managing director of Ivolga Capital, clarifies that although this currency is interesting as an alternative to the US dollar with lower infrastructure risks, “there are not so many options for investing it, which makes it inconvenient for transfers, settlements and direct further investments.”

At the same time, market participants are waiting for a more interesting currency, the UAE dirham, to appear on organized auctions. As Mr. Aleksandrov notes, the market is looking forward to the appearance of the dirham and futures on it on the stock exchange, since a large number of trade routes have now been rebuilt to the UAE. In addition, according to him, it is expected that settlements with Indian companies may also switch to dirham, which will increase the volume of transactions. In addition, the dirham, like the Hong Kong dollar, is pegged to the US dollar, “which makes it a stable currency for investments and settlements,” the expert explains.

The Moscow Exchange, in response to a request from Kommersant, only announced that it was working on launching trading in the dirham. Talks about this have been going on since February last year, Mr. Gorbunov notes, but trading has not yet begun, despite the launch of deposits in the UAE currency in certain banks and the sale of cash.

Ksenia Kulikova