“Friendship” “Friendship”, and the branches apart – Newspaper Kommersant No. 34 (7479) of 02/28/2023

Kazakhstan began the first deliveries via the Druzhba pipeline to Germany, replacing Russian oil with a German refinery. At the same time, Russia stopped pipeline oil supplies to Poland: the Russian authorities made changes to export schedules, not allowing Tatneft to continue fulfilling the contract with the Polish Orlen. Thus, shipments of Russian oil via the northern branch of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Europe have completely stopped, but they are still being shipped to Slovakia and Hungary via the southern branch.

Transneft has begun pumping oil from Kazakhstan in transit through Russia in the direction of the Adamova Zastava delivery point in Poland, Igor Demin, adviser to the president of the pipeline company, told Kommersant. The final delivery point is the Leuna and Shwedt refineries in Germany, which until the end of last year were provided with Russian raw materials (delivery volume – about 19 million tons per year). But after the expiration of the long-term contract, German consumers refused to purchase from the Russian Federation, signing a contract for the import of oil from Kazakhstan, which will be delivered through the Druzhba pipeline system.

The volume of the first batch, as reported by the national “Kaztransoil”, amounted to 20 thousand tons. In general, the company has reserved 1.2 million tons in the Transneft system for 2023, of which 300 thousand tons – in the first quarter.

At the same time, at the end of February, according to the head of the Polish oil company PKN Orlen, Daniel Obaitek, Russia stopped deliveries via the Druzhba oil pipeline to Poland, despite the fact that Tatneft has a valid contract with Orlen until December 2024. According to it, the Polish company should receive 200 thousand tons of oil per month.

Recall that EU sanctions prohibiting the import of Russian oil apply only to sea supplies. Russian oil is still pumped along the southern branch of the Druzhba to Slovakia and Hungary, but shipments have stopped along the northern branch to Poland and Germany.

In Transneft, Kommersant confirmed the information about the stoppage of pumping, referring to the absence of relevant route instructions and this direction in the export schedule approved by the Ministry of Energy. “Based on the schedule, pumping to Polish refineries was to be carried out in the last ten days of February. However, itinerary orders with a confirmed resource and payment for transit were not issued. In addition, prompt changes were made to the schedule, excluding supplies for Polish consumers,” explained Igor Demin.

The stoppage of Tatneft supplies to Poland coincided with the expiration of PKN Orlen’s contract with another Russian company, Rosneft, for 3.6 million tons of oil per year.

A Kommersant source familiar with the situation noted that changes to the export schedule were made by order of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

The office of the Deputy Prime Minister, the Ministry of Energy and Tatneft did not comment on the termination of supplies to Poland. PKN Orlen said that the company received only 10% of the required raw materials from Russia, which is planned to be replaced with oil from other directions. A significant part of these volumes will obviously also go from Kazakhstan through Russia with transshipment in the Baltic (about 10 million tons of Kazakh oil annually comes to the port of Ust-Luga via the Atyrau-Samara oil pipeline).

Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, notes that, most likely, deliveries of Kazakh oil via Druzhba to Germany are not additional volumes, but part of the shipments previously carried out from Ust-Luga. These freed-up capacities can be occupied by Tatneft. In addition, since March, Russian oil companies, by decision of the government, must reduce production by a total of 500,000 barrels per day (by 2 million tons per month), and, possibly, Tatneft will reduce exports in any case.

The expert recalls that Poland itself demanded a halt in pipeline supplies from Russia to Europe and was determined to stop consuming Russian oil, so it is unlikely that it will blame Moscow for stopping shipments and demand their resumption. Mr. Yushkov links the decision of the Ministry of Energy to change the transportation schedules along the Druzhba to the start of deliveries of Leopard tanks to Ukraine at the end of February by Poland. “Thus, Russia gives a political signal,” he said. The expert recalls that Poland was the largest supplier of fuel for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2022.

Olga Mordyushenko