Money flowed into deposits – Kommersant FM

Russian banks are seeing a record influx of money from depositors—several credit institutions reported on the large replenishment of RBC deposits. For example, at VTB, the retail portfolio increased by RUB 360 billion over the month, which is 74% more than in October. A similar trend was noted in Gazprombank, MTS Bank, as well as Rosbank and Otkritie. Experts say that the situation is similar to the spring of 2022, when the influx of household funds into deposits peaked due to the unscheduled increase in the Central Bank rate to 20%.

Now the reason is the same – banks offer high interest rates on deposits, especially short-term ones, explained Pavel Samiev, general director of the analytical agency BusinessDrom: “The main factor is higher rates. At the same time, deposits for short and medium terms are more interesting because they have more favorable conditions.

Banks assume that the rate may still be reduced in a year, and are now offering deposits for 12 months at slightly lower rates than for six months. Therefore, now many clients come to open deposits for short periods.

At the same time, financial organizations do not always raise rates on their products in the same way as the Central Bank changes the key indicator. They may not need too much influx of depositors because there is excess liquidity.

When lending slows down, for example, and when it is impossible to place money effectively, this also becomes a problem; in particular, you will have to bear high interest costs, which, of course, is ineffective.

Now the situation is quite interesting. Despite forecasts, lending volumes did not decrease in either October or November. Rates seem to have already become not very comfortable for many retail loans, in particular mortgages, and for corporate loans. But growth continues everywhere anyway.

This means that banks, by attracting liquidity, can place funds into growing loan portfolios. And so far there is no excess growth of deposits, that is, they are utilized quite well in loans.”

The Central Bank began a cycle of tightening monetary policy at the end of July. Since then, the key rate has doubled, from 7.5% to 15%. By October, household deposits increased by 2.5 trillion rubles, according to the regulator’s statistics.

According to Frank RG analysts, by the end of 2023 the retail deposit market could reach 44 trillion rubles, which corresponds to an annual growth of 20%. Banks will most likely continue to increase their deposit portfolios. They need money for bond issues and other instruments, suggested managing partner of the auditing company FBK Alexey Terekhov:

“The current interest rates are very interesting: there is a difference between what banks offer for deposits and the key indicator of the Central Bank. Therefore, financial organizations easily earn additional income from this difference.

If the prospect is that the regulator will increase the level of the key rate, then, in fact, banks will follow this strategy in order to attract money and retain existing funds.

At the same time, many analysts and the stock exchange report that there is a great need and desire on the market to place instruments in the form of IPOs and bond issues. This may be considered after some time as an alternative to deposits.”

At the next meeting on the key rate, the Bank of Russia may further raise the indicator. Analysts predict that it will be 16% or even 17%. The next meeting of the Central Bank will take place on December 15

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Svetlana Belova