Money collected in the Central Bank – Newspaper Kommersant No. 23 (7468) dated 08.02.

Banks have set a historical record for the placement of funds at the weekly deposit auction of the Central Bank – for the first time this figure has crossed the mark of 5 trillion rubles. At the same time, balances on deposits with the Bank of Russia also continue to grow and may renew the record result. However, analysts are confident that the existing liquidity surplus will be short-term, and in March banks’ deposits with the Central Bank will return to more familiar values.

At the weekly deposit auction of the Central Bank on February 7, a historical record was set – banks brought in 5.25 trillion rubles. The indicator exceeds the amount placed by banks with the Central Bank a week ago by almost 1 trillion rubles. At the same time, the rate reached 7.48% per annum, the maximum value since September last year.

The total volume of funds placed by banks on deposits with the Central Bank at the beginning of the day has already exceeded 6 trillion rubles. and became the second largest in five years of observation. The record result was reached on January 18 – 6.35 trillion rubles. Already on Wednesday, when the money will go to the accounts of the Central Bank, it will most likely be blocked, taking into account the last weekly auction.

Experts note that the main source of excess liquidity in most banks is budgetary funds. On the eve of the Ministry of Finance announced preliminary data on federal budget spending in January in the amount of 3.12 trillion rubles, which amounted to about 11% of the entire spending plan for 2023. According to the ministry’s explanation, the acceleration of spending financing at the beginning of the year is mainly due to the prompt conclusion of contracts and advance financing for certain contracted expenses, Interfax reports.

However, Expert RA Banking Ratings Director Lyudmila Kozhekina notes that the growth in placements in the Central Bank can be associated both with a temporary influx of short-term borrowed funds from clients against payments planned for the near future, and with the repayment of large loans.

Analysts believe that record placements of funds on deposits with the Central Bank due to inertia may continue in the near future, but one should not count on a long-term trend. Independent expert Olga Ulyanova believes that, most likely, the situation with excess short liquidity in banks is temporary and normalization will come by the end of February. “One of the factors of this normalization may be the placement of new OFZs by the Ministry of Finance. Another factor is the economy’s need for investment, and hence for loans,” she says. Stanislav Volkov, managing director of the NKR rating agency, adds that the liquidity surplus may grow slightly in February due to budgetary incentives, but in March due to tax payments and the start of work on government contracts, it is likely to noticeably decrease.

At the same time, advanced financing of federal budget expenditures remains a key factor determining the state of the money market. “Banks understand that the advances received from the budget and payments under completed contracts will soon be actively spent by companies, so they are trying to place them in short instruments,” explains Stanislav Volkov. Reliable corporate bonds with maturities on the horizon of one month are not enough for banks to accommodate the liquidity overhang, he clarifies. “Deposits of the Central Bank remain one of the most risk-free instruments, which is more in demand during periods of instability in the stock market, as banks are trying to be more careful in purchasing securities,” explains Lyudmila Kozhekina.

This situation “puts pressure on rates in the interbank market and the yield of very short OFZs,” Mr. Volkov points out. According to the Central Bank, the RUONIA rate in January-February is kept at the level of 7% per annum, while at the end of last year it was 7.3-7.4% per annum. According to the Moscow Exchange, the yield of semi-annual OFZs for the past two weeks has not exceeded 7% per annum, while the key rate of the Central Bank is 7.5%.

Maxim Buylov