Fortune telling on route maps – Newspaper Kommersant No. 23 (7468) dated 02/08/2023

According to the results of the year, the passenger traffic of Russian airlines may turn out to be less than 100 million people expected by the Ministry of Transport. ACRA analysts estimate it at the level of 85–95 million people in the “baseline scenario”. The forecast is based on the assumption that the list of countries available for flights will not be reduced, and the volume of state subsidies for the industry will remain at the level of 50 billion rubles. In the stress scenario, the indicators are lower, but experts do not yet expect a significant drop in traffic. Since the beginning of the year, a number of regional airports have shown an “anomalous for these months” traffic growth, and China should become an additional driver.

In 2023, Russian airlines will serve from 85 million to 95 million people, follows from the basic “inertial” scenario of the ACRA agency, which Kommersant got acquainted with. This is 6-16% lower than the target of 101 million passengers planned by the Ministry of Transport.

Base Scenario assumes that the total amount of direct and indirect subsidies and other forms of state support will amount to 50–100 billion rubles, the geopolitical situation will remain “unchanged”, and the airports of the south will remain closed. The budget for 2023 includes 53.6 billion rubles for four main carrier subsidy programs. At the same time, carriers are expected to continue operating their entire fleet of aircraft and maintain supply chains for spare parts and consumables. At least 85% of passenger traffic in this case will be passengers of domestic flights.

IN stress scenarios the possibility of a significant aggravation of the geopolitical situation, “tightening of the sanctions regime or control over its implementation” and a decrease in state support below the envisaged level of 50 billion rubles are being considered. In this case, the agency allows a drop in passenger traffic below 85 million people with a share of domestic passenger traffic of at least 90%. The depth of the fall in ACRA is not specified. “It will depend on the extent to which the prerequisites for this scenario are realized,” adds Alexander Gushchin, director of the ACRA Corporate Ratings Group.

IN optimistic scenario the agency allows the growth of passenger traffic up to 95–110 million people. The share of domestic destinations may drop to 75-85% due to the reduction of “geopolitical tensions” and the abolition of a significant part of the restrictions for the Russian aviation market. Such a calculation even exceeds the current forecast of the Ministry of Transport of 101 million passengers, but the agency itself regards its probability as low. However, Minister of Transport Vitaly Savelyev admitted that the total volume of traffic could be adjusted in the event of an extension of the closure of 11 airports in the south.

One of Kommersant’s interlocutors close to the Ministry of Transport believes that the department initially took into account all the restrictions in its forecast and “deliberately gives restrained estimates.”

The bar, in his opinion, is underestimated in order to avoid last year’s situation, when “the mark of 100 million promised to the president was never reached.” At the same time, according to him, regional airports are now showing an abnormal increase in traffic, which gives “cautious reasons” to expect stable performance in the high season. As an example, he cited the increase in traffic in January at the airports of Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Samara, Khabarovsk, St. Petersburg and Sochi.

A Kommersant source in the expert community calls ACRA’s baseline scenario “optimistic”: “Without taking into account the southern airports and with unpredictable purchasing power, reaching 85 million passengers will be a good indicator.”

The growth of the aviation market to 100 million passengers and an increase in the share of international flights are expected by analysts from the My Investments channel. According to transport expert Elena Sakhnova, a certain stake is also placed on China, which in 2019, according to ATOR, was visited by 2.6 million Russians. This year, the desire to increase the frequency of flights to China was announced by Aeroflot, on February 6, the Federal Air Transport Agency also issued new permits for flights there to Azimuth and Red Wings.

“We adhere to optimistic forecasts, under which the prices for tickets abroad will decrease by 2022 due to an increase in the fleet of debermuidized aircraft and an increase in supply,” Ms. Sakhnova added.

There can be no justified forecasts, Andrey Kramarenko, a senior researcher at the Institute of Transport Economics at the Higher School of Economics, notes: “The key factors that determine the result now have a non-economic origin and therefore are hardly predictable.” He refers to such factors, in particular, sanctions, changes in the consumer habits of passengers when choosing non-obvious but affordable destinations, as well as a decrease in purchasing power.

Aigul Abdullina