Ministry of Economy: improved forecast for the Russian economy indicates the overcoming of sanctions barriers

International Monetary Fund (IMF) improved forecast for the Russian economy from a fall of 2.3% last year to growth of 0.3% in 2023. The Ministry of Economy believes that this indicates the overcoming of Western sanctions. Further economic recovery will depend on a recovery in consumer demand and measures to ensure credit growth, the agency said.

“Indeed, the Russian economy is confidently overcoming the sanctions barriers of unfriendly countries,” they said. RBC at the Ministry of Economy.

The ministry will refine its estimates for 2023 and 2024 “in accordance with the regulations within the scenario conditions for the forecast of socio-economic development.” Scenario conditions are usually prepared in April.

The IMF, prior to the outbreak of the armed conflict in Ukraine, expected Russian GDP to grow by 2.1% in 2023. After the introduction of troops, he predicted a fall of 2.3%, then worsened to a decrease of 3.5%, but returned to the level of 2.3% in the fall. The Ministry of Economy of the Russian Federation expects in 2023 a decline in GDP by 0.8%, the Central Bank – within 1-4%.

The decline in the Russian economy in 2022, according to official preliminary estimates, was 2.5%, according to the IMF – 2.2%. The fund expected a decline of 8.5% in April, 6% in July, and 3.4% in October.

Daria Erozbek