Long-distance transportation exceeded dock level figures

Passenger transportation by rail by long-distance trains in February 2023 increased by 42% compared to the same month last year to 7.3 million people. In two months of 2023, they grew by 29% to 16.1 million passengers, follows from operational data Russian Railwayspublished March 1st.

In February of pre-Covid 2019, Russian Railways transported 6.6 million people on long-distance routes, and in the first two months of that year, 15.2 million. Thus, at the beginning of 2023, transportation by rail exceeded the pre-pandemic year. In 2020, due to the pandemic and numerous restrictions, long-distance traffic fell by 42.1% to 67.4 million passengers.

In February 2023, commuter trains transported 74.1 million people (+10.5%). For the first two months of 2023 – 148.7 million people (+9%). In general, passenger transportation by rail in January-February 2023 increased by 11% compared to the same period last year and amounted to 164.8 million people, follows from Russian Railways data. In February, the growth was 13% to 81.4 million passengers.

Vedomosti sent clarifying questions to Russian Railways.

In 2022, passenger transportation by rail in Russia did not reach the levels of pre-pandemic 2019 (Vedomosti wrote about this on January 10, 2023). The number of passengers decreased from the peak of three years ago by 5% to 1.14 billion people. In 2022, compared to 2019, the number of passengers using long-distance trains decreased by 7%, commuter trains – by 5%.

At the same time, in comparison with 2021, in 2022, transportation grew: the strongest in long-distance routes – by 18% to 108.3 million people. This is due, among other things, to the closure of 11 airports in the south of the country after the start of the NWO in Ukraine. To meet the demand for transportation in the south direction, RZD appointed additional trains during the year. Suburban transportation in 2022 increased by 5% to 86.7 million passengers.

At the beginning of January 2023, experts told Vedomosti that the delayed negative effects of the impact on the economy of the coronavirus and the ongoing NWO in 2023 could also negatively affect passenger traffic this year as well. They predicted an increase in traffic volumes in the first quarter by 3.5% and by 5-6% for the whole of 2023.

According to Mikhail Burmistrov, General Director of Infoline-analytics, the positive trend in passenger traffic “will be typical for the whole year.” “The railway, especially long-distance transportation, will be more attractive to Russians than air travel, due to the lack of a clear decision regarding aircraft maintenance and recent violations of the country’s airspace,” the expert believes. But, according to Burmistrov, the growth rate of passenger traffic will slow down, since January and February are the months when 11 airports in the south of Russia were still operating. They closed on February 24, 2022.

Pavel Ivankin, President of the National Research Center for Transportation and Infrastructure, also attributes the strong growth in passenger traffic to pent-up demand in 2020-2021. due to covid restrictions, as well as the closure of airports in southern Russia. “Russian Railways is actively expanding tourist routes that are in demand among the population,” the expert added.

Ivankin believes that the positive dynamics will continue throughout the year. Moreover, the expert continues, there were long holidays in February, and this created additional demand for long-distance passenger transportation. “If supporting trends continue, we can expect reaching sub-level values ​​already in 2023,” the expert concluded.

Mikhail Shiryborov, Deputy Head of the Passenger Transport Research Department at the Institute for Natural Monopoly Problems (IPEM), noted that the increase in traffic Russian Railways in long-distance routes from February 22 to February 26, 2023 amounted to 70% compared to the same period last year. According to the expert, in March 2023 we should expect less significant traffic growth rates – by 2-3% to 91 million passengers.

In total, in 2023 this figure will not reach the level of 2019, amounting to about 1.17 billion passengers, the expert believes. “But while maintaining the current socio-economic conditions, the volume of long-distance passenger traffic in 2023 may exceed the level of 2019,” admits Shiryborov.