Loans have grown in season – Finance – Kommersant

After the October fall in the consumer lending market, there has been a revival. Some stabilization of the economic situation, the approach of the pre-New Year high season, and the desire to have time to take advantage of preferential programs, which will end in 2022, have also affected. However, it is too early to talk about the market recovery. At the end of the year, the result in terms of the volume of loans will be a quarter lower than last year. At the same time, in 2023, in addition to geopolitical instability, new factors will appear that slow down lending.

According to Frank RG Express Monitoring, in November all segments of consumer lending showed growth after October fall at least in terms of money. Overall volume lending amounted to 1.096 trillion rubles, which is 5.4% more than a month earlier. At the same time, the volume of loans issued for the reporting month in cash amounted to 506 billion rubles. (growth by 3% compared to October of the current year). Issued volume mortgage loans – 481 billion rubles. (+6.5%), car loans — 67 billion rubles. (+10.2%). The most significant growth rates were shown POS loans – the volume of issuance amounted to 42.8 billion rubles, which is 15.3% higher than the October value, follows from the materials of Frank RG. At the same time, indicators in all segments still lag behind last year by 7–27%.

The bankers also confirm the growing trend. So, for example, in November, the increase in the issuance of non-purpose loans of HCF-Bank amounted to 30.3% in a monthly comparison. The dynamics of disbursements in the POS lending market is also positive. The increase in issuances in November compared to October was 18% in the POS-lending segment, lists Andrey Spivakov, Chief Executive Officer of the bank.

It is noteworthy that in quantitative terms, the segment of cash loans and loans at retail outlets showed an increase even in annual comparison – by 15% and 107%, respectively. This is due to a decrease in the amount of loans issued in both segments: to 221.2 thousand rubles. for cash loans and up to 26.2 thousand rubles. for POS loans.

In November, the consumer lending segment was supported by some stabilization of the macroeconomic situation: both the banking sector and the population “calmed down” after the September shock, Frank RG experts explain the growing trend.

According to experts and bankers, the mortgage and car lending segments received significant support from government programs, and the POS loan market was hit by Black Friday, which came during the period when pent-up demand was realized. In PSB, the number of applications for consumer loans in November increased by 20% compared to October: in the pre-New Year period, consumer loans traditionally remain the most popular type of lending, Rustam Rafikov, head of the bank’s loan products department, agrees.

At the same time, the aggregate growth rate at the end of the year may be very restrained due to a decrease in consumer activity compared to 2020-2021, said Yegor Lopatin, Deputy Director of the Financial Institutions Ratings Group of the NKR Agency. At the end of the year, the growth of the mortgage portfolio may be in the range of 15-17%, and for other loans up to 5%, given multidirectional factors: tightening of risk policies by banks, a slight recovery in demand from the population for loans and the seasonal factor, the director of the group expects ratings of financial institutions by ACRA Mikhail Polukhin.

But, of course, in the annual comparison, the volume of issuance will show a decrease.

“In the second half of the year, sales of retail loans on the market will exceed 6 trillion rubles, showing an increase of more than 1.5 times compared to the first half of the year. In total, according to the results of the year, banks will issue more than 10 trillion rubles. loans, which will be lower than in 2021 by about a quarter, ”VTB estimates.

And in 2023, the market will continue to have factors other than geopolitical factors that will slow down lending growth. So, for example, the termination of the state program “Preferential New Building” will have a negative impact on the mortgage market, Irina Babina, chief analyst at Rosbank Dom, fears that it is worth waiting for a decrease in issuance, even despite the fact that other programs will take over part of the demand (“Family Mortgage ”, “Far Eastern mortgage”, IT-mortgage). According to Ms. Babina, the issuance of mortgages in the primary market may decrease by 15%. Pressure on the segment will be exerted by both high real estate prices and a trend towards rising interest rates, adds Ivan Uklein, director of banking ratings at Expert RA.

In general, the coming year is characterized by high volatility of forecasts, but in the absence of new external shocks, retail lending growth can be expected to remain approximately at the level of 2022, the expert believes. The dynamics of consumer lending next year will also be constrained by the establishment of macroprudential limits on unsecured loans, and in mortgages – increased surcharges for loans with a low down payment and expected restrictions on mortgages “from developers” with a low rate, notes Yegor Lopatin.

Polina Trifonova