Loads are pulled along the meridian – Newspaper Kommersant No. 199 (7400) of 10/26/2022

Changes in logistics schemes will increase the demand for the North-South international transport corridor connecting Russia with Iran and further with India. According to EDB analysts, the additional cargo flow along the corridor, caused by the change in the political situation in the world, will amount to 5-7 million tons of export and 2-7 million tons of import cargo in three years. However, the development of railway infrastructure is still hampered by the unfinished section of Resht-Astara in Iran, and sea transportation through the Caspian Sea is constrained by additional costs for two transshipments.

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published a report on the development of the North-South International Transport Corridor (ITC), linking Russia with India through Iran and either the Transcaucasus, or Central Asia, or the Caspian Sea. The Bank notes that previously the potential of this transport corridor was not fully used due to the fact that cargo owners and forwarders preferred routes passing through the ports of the Baltic and Azov-Black Sea basins.

In the “new reality”, the corridor will allow expanding the geography of transportation both to countries that traditionally gravitate towards it (India, Pakistan, the states of the Persian Gulf and Central Asia), and in communication with Europe through Turkey and Azerbaijan as part of the interface with the ITC TRACECA connecting Europe with Asia through the Caucasus, bypassing Russia (the route, both road and rail, is fully functional, the report notes). We are also talking about communication with the countries of Africa and Latin America through Turkish ports and the Asia-Pacific countries through the Iranian ports of the Persian Gulf to replace the ports of the Baltic.

According to last year’s EDB forecast (for more details, see “Kommersant” dated November 30, 2021), the potential for transportation along the ITC North-South (connects Russia with India across the ocean and further overland through Iran and the Caucasus) by 2030 is 14 in the baseline scenario, 6 million tons, optimistic – 24.7 million tons. Mostly we are talking about grain (8.7-12.8 million tons in 2030) and containerized cargo (325-662 thousand TEU, or 5.9-11.9 million tons). Mikhail Mishustin named similar, although large figures last week: “According to the conservative version of the forecast, the volume of cargo traffic by all modes of transport in the North-South direction will increase over this period (until 2030.— “b”) by 135% compared to last year, to about 32.5 million tons.”

As noted in the EDB report, it is possible to connect additional cargo traffic, including Russian metals, oil products, as well as Belarusian fertilizers, woodworking products. The additional volume of cargo can be estimated in the short term at 2-4 million tons, in the future up to three years – at 5-7 million tons, the document says. The potential for additional import cargo traffic through the infrastructure of the corridor to the Russian Federation, Belarus and Kazakhstan from the EU and the USA will be 1-3 million and 2-7 million tons, respectively.

The basis of traffic in the corridor is motor vehicles, the importance of which will increase within the framework of the “new logistics”. Cargoes are delivered by cars from the EU countries through Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan with access either to the ITC or through the automobile border crossing (MAPP) with Georgia Daryali-Upper Lars. The latter “due to its limitations, has not yet been able to become an alternative to the western route of the ITC North-South, passing through Baku and the Russian-Azerbaijani checkpoints Yarag-Kazmalyar and Tagirkent-Kazmalyar.”

The use of the railway corridor is hampered by the need to change the gauge, the non-electrification of railways in Iran and, first of all, the absence of the 165 km section of the Rasht-Astara route itself.

The agreement on the construction of the Qazvin-Rasht-Anzeli-Astara road was signed by Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia in 2005, the Iranian section has a length of 360 km. The Qazvin-Rasht and Astara Iranian-Astara Azerbaijan sections are already in use. The commissioning of the Rasht-Anzeli port section is planned for 2023.

“One of the key problems associated with the construction of the Rasht-Astara section is the geography of the area through which the new road should pass,” the EDB report says. “Land plots in the coastal strip of the Caspian Sea from Anzali to Astara belong to private owners.”

“At the same time, the cost of land, taking into account its resort value, is quite high, which requires significant funds for the purchase of a plot,” the authors of the report conclude. Now transportation goes with an overload on cars.

Russian Railways observes an increase in traffic on the western route of the ITC: in nine months, 5.3 million tons of cargo passed through the Samur-Yalama border crossing with Azerbaijan, which is 55% more than a year earlier. A project is being worked out to develop the Derbent checkpoint, as a result of which, by 2025, the carrying capacity of the Samur-Yalama border crossing will increase by 2-2.5 times, up to 15 million tons. In the eastern direction (through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran), there is an increase in trade with India, Russian Railways reports.

The head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov, says that the main problem of the railway route within the ITC North-South is the high cost of transportation, caused by “improper processes, underdeveloped infrastructure and services.” However, taking into account the strengthening of relations with Iran, cargo traffic may increase many times over in 2023, the expert believes. The development of the route will be helped by the restoration of the railway through Nakhichevan, which, in the opinion of Mr. Burmistrov, “will inevitably take place in one form or another, taking into account the current state of relations between the Russian Federation and Turkey.”

The Trans-Caspian route will be in demand for the transportation of metals, timber, mineral fertilizers, grain and containerized cargo by sea, the report says. Its use will allow transporting goods by river-sea vessels from the central regions of Russia to the Iranian Caspian ports with subsequent delivery by road or rail to the ports of the Persian Gulf. Nadezhda Malysheva from PortNews believes that the development of a transit route through the Caspian Sea is hampered by double transshipment (in the ports of Iran and Russia) and the weather factor. Promising, in her opinion, would be the development of “river-sea” routes with entry into the Volga, especially when transporting bulk cargo, however, river routes operate only in summer, so logistics will have to be changed twice a year.

Natalya Skorlygina