Lithium-undervalued batteries – Newspaper Kommersant No. 17 (7462) dated 01/31/2023

As Kommersant found out, Rosatom has almost doubled the estimated cost of a plant for the production of lithium-ion batteries for vehicles in Kaliningrad. The construction of the gigafactory may cost 51 billion rubles, of which 19 billion rubles are state corporation funds, and 27 billion rubles are loans. Specific capital expenditures for gigafactories abroad are lower, analysts point out. Rosatom explains that the plant is being built from scratch and has no analogues in the country, and its price includes the cost of building infrastructure and its own R&D center.

Kommersant managed to get acquainted with the government’s updated plan for the development of production of energy storage systems (ESS) in the country. The largest project is the Rosatom plant for the production of lithium-ion batteries in the Kaliningrad region. The state corporation, as follows from the document, has almost doubled the estimated value of the enterprise: the total CAPEX of the project may amount to approximately 51.5 billion rubles. In the previous version of the document, the plant was estimated at 26.35 billion rubles. (see Kommersant dated May 20, 2022).

Rosatom plans to invest 19.2 billion rubles in the construction of the gigafactory. own funds, another 27.3 billion rubles. will be raised through loans. In addition, the regional budget will allocate a subsidy of 5 billion rubles. In the previous version, it was assumed that the project would have some kind of “second shareholder”, but in the updated version there is no more information about the partners.

The construction of the gigafactory is carried out by Renera (part of TVEL, the fuel division of Rosatom) at the site of the frozen Baltic NPP (10 km from the border with Lithuania). The launch of the plant is expected in autumn 2025. The technology partner is the South Korean Enertech. The capacity of the gigafactory at the first stage will be 4 GWh per year (approximately 50,000 electric vehicles) with the possibility of expansion up to 14 GWh. Rosatom plans to produce batteries for electric vehicles and urban electric transport. The state corporation has an agreement with the automaker Avtotor.

According to the plan, Rosatom expects to sell 690 MWh batteries within the country in 2023-2025, and 3.75 GWh in 2030. The volume of sales of SNE, components and services in monetary terms for 2023-2025 within the Russian Federation will be about 14.8 billion rubles, and in 2030 it will exceed 35.6 billion rubles. Exports of SNE will also increase: in 2023 and 2024 it will be about $21 million per year, in 2025 – $29 million, and in 2030 – $107 million.

Renera LLC told Kommersant that the government’s roadmap provides “estimated investment values, taking into account not only the creation of the production itself, but also the cost of building an R & D center for the development of new technologies for the production of batteries and R&D.” The gigafactory is being built from scratch, which provides for the creation of a developed infrastructure, as well as the supply of high-tech equipment. The final volume of investments will be determined after the state examination, Renera LLC notes.

“This kind of project is being implemented in the Russian Federation for the first time, so additional investments are possible as it is completed,” Renera continues. “Changes in the design of the factory are also associated with a high rate of technology development and their rapid introduction to the market. In order to start producing world-class competitive products in 2025, it is necessary to take into account and lay down advanced know-how now. At the moment, most of the technical solutions have been developed.”

Now there are about 50 gigafactories in the world, and more than 60 plants are under construction, says Alexei Martynushkin from Vygon Consulting. Gigafactory construction costs range from $40 million to over $100 million per GWh per year, depending on size and location, the analyst notes. Aleksey Martynushkin believes that by 2030 the volume of the domestic SNE market in Russia has every chance of exceeding 100 billion rubles. in year. The key sales sector will be electric transport.

The unit cost of building the Kaliningrad factory is $184 million per 1 GWh, provided that we are talking about investments only in a 4 GWh line, notes Dmitry Babansky from SBS Consulting. By comparison, LG plans to build an 11 GWh US factory for $1.3 billion, about 50% less than the unit cost of the Kaliningrad facility, the analyst adds. Mr. Babansky believes that the higher capital costs of the Russian facility may be associated, among other things, with a decrease in the availability and rise in the cost of the necessary advanced equipment for Russian companies, more complicated logistics, and possible exchange rate shocks.

Polina Smertina