Like rubles in a barrel – Newspaper Kommersant No. 242 (7443) of 12/28/2022

The ruble value of Russian oil Urals after a month and a half rose above 4.7 thousand rubles. per barrel. For two and a half weeks, it has risen in price by almost 40%, which is associated with both the rise in prices on the world market and the depreciation of the ruble. But even if current oil prices remain the same, next year the budget deficit, according to analysts, may exceed the 2022 figure of 3 trillion rubles.

The ruble price of Urals for the first time since mid-November rose above the level of 4.7 thousand rubles. per barrel. According to Profinance.ru, on Tuesday, December 27, quotes rose to the level of 4.711 thousand rubles. per barrel, which is almost 6% higher than Wednesday’s close. At the end of the day, the price closed at the level of 4.69 thousand rubles.

A significant increase in the cost of oil is associated primarily with the rise in prices on the world market.

According to Investing.comOn Tuesday, the price of European Brent oil on the spot market rose to $85.2 per barrel, which is almost 1.2% higher than the previous day’s close and 13% higher than the local minimum set in the first decade of December. The cost of Urals rose over the same time by 2.5% and 24%, to a maximum since December 2 of $66 per barrel.

According to Vitaly Gromadin, asset manager at BCS Mir Investments, oil prices are rising amid news from China, confirming the authorities’ strategy to ease anti-COVID restrictions, as well as shut down refining capacities in Texas due to a sharp cold snap. The outpacing growth in the price of Russian oil was facilitated by the news that the President of the Russian Federation signed Decree on measures against the price ceiling.

The effect was exacerbated by currency revaluation against the background of the rapid growth of the dollar: on December 27 at the Moscow Exchange, it reached 71.205 rubles / $, which is close to the seven-month high set last week. At the end of the day, the rate stopped at 70.40 rubles/$.

The average cost of Russian oil since the beginning of the year amounted to 5.56 thousand rubles. per barrel, which is 10% higher than in 2021 and 24% higher than the price budgeted in the 2022 budget at the end of 2021 (4,485 thousand rubles).

According to Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank, the volume of budget oil and gas revenues for the year will amount to 11.5 trillion rubles, which is more than a quarter higher than in 2021 (9.5 trillion rubles). However, taking into account the increased spending, which the Ministry of Finance estimated by the end of 2022 at more than 30 trillion rubles, although a year earlier they amounted to only 26.5 trillion rubles, as a result, the budget deficit is estimated at 2% of GDP.

In 2023, market participants believe, average oil prices will be lower. According to Ekaterina Krylova, managing expert of the PSB Analytics and Expertise Center, the ruble price for Urals oil in 2023 is expected to be at the level of 4,514 thousand rubles. This will be due to a decrease in the price of oil in dollars and a discount to the global Brent benchmark of $21 per barrel on average. “The presence of a discount is connected with the introduction of an embargo and a ceiling on prices for Russian oil and oil products, which will limit their supplies to export markets,” says Ms. Krylova. Mikhail Vasiliev does not rule out a stronger reduction in prices to 4.2 thousand rubles. with an average Urals price of $60 per barrel and an average ruble/dollar exchange rate of 70 rubles/$.

Due to the fact that the budget for 2023 was drawn up based on the oil price of 4.8 thousand rubles. (according to Zenith Bank), therefore, the budget deficit may be even greater than the forecast value set by the Ministry of Finance at 2% of GDP, or about 3 trillion rubles.

According to Mikhail Vasiliev, the budget deficit in 2023 will amount to 3.4 trillion rubles. The Ministry of Finance so far plans to allocate up to 2.9 trillion rubles to finance the deficit in 2023. from the NWF. At the same time, the ministry stated that it would like to minimize spending from the NWF in favor of loans in the debt market.

According to analysts, in 2023 the Ministry of Finance can borrow 2.5–3 trillion rubles on the debt market. with the main focus on floaters, as in the crisis years of 2022 and 2020. Taking into account the preservation of the volume of the liquid part of the NWF (about 7.6 trillion rubles), says Vladimir Evstifeev, the Ministry of Finance is unlikely to provide impressive premiums to maximize the volume of domestic borrowing.

Vitaly Gaidaev