Lending has been regulated - Newspaper Kommersant No. 23 (7468) of 02/08/2023

Lending has been regulated - Newspaper Kommersant No. 23 (7468) of 02/08/2023

Russian banks in January reduced the volume of lending to citizens. According to Frank RG, 0.8 trillion rubles were issued. against 1.4 trillion rubles. in December and 909.4 billion rubles. in January 2022. The market has not yet fully recovered, in addition, January is the first month when new macroprudential limits introduced by the Central Bank began to operate for banks, limiting the issuance of loans by term and level of debt load.

Russian banks for January 2023 issued 845 billion rubles. loans to individuals, follows from the preliminary data of the analytical company Frank RG (the credit card market is not taken into account). This volume is 38.6% less than in December (1.4 trillion rubles) and 7.1% lower than the volume of last year's January (909.4 billion rubles).

Compared to December, the volume of loans issued decreased in all segments, with the exception of the car market, where growth was recorded by a symbolic 1.5% (up to 74.1 billion rubles), but in annual terms, the volume decreased by 6%.

The most serious drop was shown by the mortgage market, which decreased by 59.5% compared to December and by 13.5% in annual terms, to 284.3 billion rubles. loans, the volume of cash loans issued fell by 18.27% and 3.2%, respectively (to 452.7 billion rubles), POS loans in retail outlets - by 28.1% and 1.6%, respectively (to 33. 7 billion rubles).

In quantitative terms, compared to January last year, the volume of loans increased in the segment of cash loans and POS loans (by 28%, to 2.2 million, and by 71%, to 1.3 million, respectively). In the car lending segment, the volume decreased by almost 5% (but increased by 8.1% compared to December), to 59.9 thousand, in the mortgage in quantitative terms, the volume of loans fell by 14.2%, to 81.3 thousand. The average check on loans in the cash segment in January amounted to 206.8 thousand rubles, in car loans - 1.2 million rubles, in POS - 25.3 thousand, in mortgages - 3.5 million rubles.

In the segment of cash loans, according to Frank RG, "the decrease in the number of loans issued can be explained by the past holidays and large spending in December." In the auto lending segment, loans were boosted by “a discount program restarted in January and new brands entering the market.”

There are two reasons for the fall of the mortgage market in January, says Sergey Gordeiko, chief expert of the analytical company Rusipoteka. Firstly, in December, the rush demand for preferential programs was realized, there was a surge in demand, even despite their announced extension. Secondly, this result is facilitated by the struggle of the Central Bank with subsidized mortgages at low (less than 1%) rates from developers. January is characterized by a stable market rate, but the market is rebuilding after a change in near-zero rates. “The rush demand in December squeezed the market to the maximum. The overheating was so great that the drop in January is painful enough for the mortgage market to self-consciously. The mortgage market does not like uneven fluctuations,” notes Mr. Gordeiko. Against this background, in January, the demand for mortgages is already coming from borrowers with worse creditworthiness, he says.

Elvira NabiullinaHead of the Bank of Russia, November 8, 2022:

“The banking system, despite the fact that it was the first and most powerful hit of the sanctions, has weathered this year's shocks well and retains the potential for lending and a margin of safety.”

However, at present, banks and developers are modifying programs to fit the formal requirements of the Central Bank. Yegor Lopatin, Deputy Director of the Group of Ratings of Financial Institutions of the NKR Agency, notes that the potential for further growth of the market remains. However, the agency expects a slowdown in mortgage dynamics amid rising rates for both market and state programs, as well as tightening regulation in this segment, in particular with regard to mortgages from developers.

It should be noted that January was the first month when the new regulation of the Central Bank in terms of macroprudential limits came into effect for banks (they allow limiting the issuance of loans, in particular, for five-year consumer loans and loans with a high debt burden). The Central Bank introduced new regulation to curb the growth of lending. In terms of non-mortgage consumer loans, banks may now have some difficulties with how to fit into this regulation (see "Kommersant" dated September 21, 2022), notes one of the interlocutors of Kommersant. The market is still learning to live in such conditions. In his assessment, issuance will suffer from the new regulation, but the scale is not yet clear.

Olga Sherunkova

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