Leasing was slowed down by the rate – Kommersant

According to the results of the first half of the year, the leasing market recovered to the indicators of the record year 2021, the NRA calculated. In part of the mass segments, the problem of a shortage of leased items was resolved, and the economy stabilized after last year’s shocks. However, the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank may slow down the market in the second half of the year and lead to a deterioration in the quality of the portfolio of leasing companies.

According to the results of the second quarter, the volume of new leasing business, expressed in the number of leased items, reached 161 thousand units, follows from the review of the NRA, which Kommersant got acquainted with. This is in line with the similar segment-record year 2021. For comparison: according to the results of the second quarter of 2022, which was the main crisis after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, the figure was more than half as much.

Recovery began in the second half of 2022, but then growth was provided mainly in monetary terms due to the rise in prices of leased items, which were still in short supply (see Kommersant dated January 25). But now the situation has changed.

“In the first half of 2023, there was an almost frontal growth of new business in most categories of leased items. The number of issued vehicles increased by 70%, and the number of units of technological equipment issued increased by almost 50%. This strong recovery growth is largely due to the high ability of leasing companies to adapt to the structural crisis, the stabilization of monetary policy in the first half of the year and government stimulus,” the NRA study says.

The retail segments demanded by small and medium-sized businesses have become important drivers of the recovery growth in the industry, the authors of the study emphasize (see also Kommersant of May 29).

Stabilization of the availability of leased items, although not in all segments, is also confirmed by lessors. “So, in the segment of trucks and cars, this is due to the active appearance of Chinese equipment on the market. Demand for used leased items is also still higher than in previous years. In other corporate segments, such as leasing of railway transport, ships, equipment, the supply shortage is leveled out more slowly due to longer production periods,” explains Anton Musatov, CEO of VTB Leasing.

“In the first half of the year, special equipment worth 44 billion rubles was produced in Russia, 30% more than a year earlier. However, it is worth noting the continuing shortage of cars and light commercial vehicles,” says Vyacheslav Spirov, general director of Sberbank Leasing.

Meanwhile, in the second half of the year, NRA experts expect a slowdown in market growth. According to the forecasts of the authors of the review, in physical terms, the volume of new business in July-December will amount to about 150 thousand items per quarter. Also, the growth of business will slow down the tightening of monetary policy, the NRA notes. “A significant increase in the base rate may call into question the expediency of investing in the subject of leasing. The good business dynamics in recent quarters was, albeit partially, provided by a soft monetary policy,” agrees the general director of Rosbank Leasing, Guram Kudryavtsev.

As a result, lessees who cannot postpone the acquisition of fixed assets risk increasing their debt burden, Alexander Valentsev, head of the Interleasing sales department, fears: “This will lead to an increase in credit risks in the market, a deterioration in the quality of portfolios of leasing companies and, as a result, tightening conditions offered by leasing companies. If the rate continues to rise, he adds, there is a possibility of higher financing rates from banks on previously issued loans, which lessors can broadcast to customers.

Polina Trifonova