Export of coal cannot be washed white – Kommersant
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Sea coal exports in August will be at the level of July, follows from Kpler data. Coal companies were able to redirect supplies after the erosion of the routes at BAM, which, in particular, significantly reduced exports through Vanino. In other respects, the export of coal in Russia is growing. According to experts and officials, coal production and exports are likely to remain at the level of last year, but the industry’s marginality is declining.
Maritime exports of Russian coal in August will be at the level of July, despite the blurred routes at the BAM. According to preliminary data from Kpler, since the beginning of the month, 15.2 million tons have been shipped for export through Russian ports against 15.7 million tons in July.
On August 19, in the Severo-Baikalsky region of Buryatia, due to abnormal rains, the Kholodnaya River overflowed its banks. She washed away the bridge on the BAM and the embankment adjacent to it, through traffic on the highway was interrupted, and coal companies were forced to reorient supplies. Trains were launched through the damaged section already on August 23, however, after the state of emergency, Russian Railways imposed a ban on loading at Vanino and Sovgavan until August 26, and there was also a ban for other reasons on loading coal at part of the Nakhodka and Vladivostok terminals. According to Kpler, exports through Vanino fell by 30% to 1.7 million tons of coal. Exports through Nakhodka grew in August by 7%, to 1.2 million tons, through Vostochny – also by 7%, to 2.6 million tons.
All Russian maritime exports for eight months, according to preliminary information, show an increase of 6%, to 121 million tons. However, over the last eight months of 2022, it was almost the same (122 million tons). A year earlier, Russian exports were undergoing major changes. For coal companies, the Ukrainian and Polish markets were lost, where shipments went mainly by rail (exports to Europe and Ukraine in 2021 amounted to 64 million tons), and Russia was forced to redistribute these volumes to the Asia-Pacific region, where 140 million tons of coal – mainly by sea. In 2022, Russian thermal coal exports by sea increased by 10.5% compared to 2021, according to Argus.
The Ministry of Energy expects coal production and exports to remain at the level of 2022, when production amounted to 443.6 million tons, and exports – 210.9 million tons. Deliveries to China increased by 11.2%, to 60 million tons, and to India – by 147.8%, to 16.7 million. The volumes were maintained, among other things, due to discounts on Russian coal. Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Sergey Mochalnikov in an interview with InfoTEK said that discounts for Russian coal to world benchmarks are gradually decreasing, although they strongly depend on the quality characteristics of the supplied products. “This is especially true for discounts on coking coal in all export directions,” he explained. “For thermal coal, the size of discounts has been reduced to a minimum and is not so critical for the economies of coal exporters.” However, the marginality of the industry has decreased, the deputy minister noted. “The low margin in the western direction is partly offset by the volumes shipped to the east,” he said. “The ports of the Far East remain the most profitable direction for coal supplies abroad, from which it is most convenient and profitable to supply solid fuel to China and India.” However, the development of loading is hindered by the lack of railway infrastructure, Mr. Mochalnikov added.
A certain increase in shipments in September and October is likely, says independent industrial expert Maxim Shaposhnikov. However, November and December will traditionally show lower loading dynamics due to the increase in coal freezing and, as a result, the formation of traffic jams in ports. Thus, the analyst believes, the results of sea shipping this year will be higher than last year, but this increase is unlikely to be significant. “It is still premature to expect that this year the railway infrastructure will allow a significant increase in exports against the background of the reorientation of oil cargo to the east,” he says.
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