JSC Russian Railways and shippers disagreed on the third stage of development of the Eastern range

Russian Railways and shippers disagreed on the third stage of development of the Eastern range, which involves expanding capacity from 180 million tons to 255 million tons. Of 2.7 trillion rubles. of the project estimates, Russian Railways wants to direct 90% of investments to the BAM, including continuous second tracks from Urgal to Vanino, a bridge over the Amur and three tunnels, including the second Severomuysky and its bypass. Shippers propose to remove the second Severomuysky and Kuznetsovsky tunnels, abandon continuous second tracks, but significantly increase investments in the Trans-Siberian Railway and exits to it.

JSC Russian Railways estimates the third stage of the expansion of the BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway at 2.68 trillion rubles, a source familiar with the discussion between the monopoly and shippers within the framework of an interdepartmental working group led by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov told Kommersant.

The expansion of the Eastern test site is planned in three stages. The first is completed, the second ends this year, then comes the third, which is divided into three sub-phases. The first is an increase in carrying capacity to 197 million tons for cargo from Yakutia, primarily from the Elginskoye field. The second is up to 210 million tons by 2030, mainly for cargo from Central Russia, the Urals and Western Siberia. The third – up to 255 million tons by 2032 with the construction of backup Severomuysky, Kuznetsovsky and Kodarsky tunnels and a bridge over the Amur. Ruslan Baysarov and Gazprombank propose to implement this stage of BTS-Most through an EPCF contract (see “Kommersant” dated September 12, 2023). The latest known estimate for the three substages is RUB 2.18 trillion. (see “Kommersant” dated October 30, 2023).

Russian Railways estimates the construction of the second Severomuisky tunnel at 307 billion rubles, the Kodarsky tunnel at 36 billion rubles, the Kuznetsovsky tunnel at 61 billion rubles, and the bridge over the Amur at 47 billion rubles. At the same time, Kommersant’s interlocutor says, it is also planned to develop a bypass of the Severomuysky tunnel at a cost of 60.3 billion rubles, which was previously an alternative. Before the start of hostilities, the concept was that the tunnel was needed to carry cargo traffic from the west and the parameters could be achieved by reconstruction (see from “Kommersant” February 16, 2022). But the redirection of cargo flows to Asia from 2022 has changed estimates and plans.

JSC Russian Railways could not promptly provide Kommersant with a comment.

The main investments in the monopoly version are provided for in the eastern BAM – from Tynda to the ports of the Vanino-Sovgavan hub.

It is planned to invest about 1.3 trillion rubles there, about 70% of which will go to continuous second tracks from Ulak to Komsomolsk. The western section from Taishet to Tynda follows closely behind, where linear construction – second tracks and double-track inserts – accounts for slightly less than half of the investment of 1.1 trillion rubles. About 400 billion rubles are for tunnels and their bypasses, another about 60 billion rubles. plan to spend on the construction of a bypass of the Tayshet station.

The working group of Vladimir Rashevsky participating in the discussion (he headed SUEK until 2020), despite the fact that SUEK owns a large specialized coal terminal in Vanino, proposes to significantly – by about 300 billion rubles – reduce investments in the Tynda-Vanino section, abandoning the continuous double-track construction and backup of the Kuznetsovsky tunnel. In the western section, even greater cost reductions are expected: not to build the Severomuysky tunnel, limiting it to bypassing it, abandoning the bypass of Taishet and the reconstruction of stations.

At the same time, shippers are calling for a sharp increase in investments in the Trans-Siberian Railway, for which Russian Railways wants to allocate only about 10% of all investments in the third stage.

Thus, Mr. Rashevsky’s working group proposes to include in the expansion of the Trans-Siberian the expensive construction of a bypass of the Khabarovsk junction (more than 240 billion rubles), to build additional stations and acceleration tracks, increasing the construction budget on the Trans-Siberian more than twice, to approximately 600 billion rubles. Kuzbassrazrezugol (KRU) sees the situation differently: the company’s ideas include expanding the Irkutsk-Slyudyanka section and building a bypass for the Smolyaninovo-Nakhodka section, which in total will cost more than 500 billion rubles, Kommersant’s interlocutor says.

Vladimir Rashevsky’s group also considers it necessary to significantly increase investments in the connection between the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway Komsomolsk-Volochaevka, directing about 270 billion rubles there. instead of less than 50 billion rubles, which is talked about by JSC Russian Railways.

Within the framework of BAM-3, Mr. Rashevsky’s working group intends to limit itself to achieving a more modest carrying capacity than JSC Russian Railways – 228 million tons instead of 255 million tons. However, according to her estimates, this will cost almost 600 billion rubles. cheaper.

At JSC Russian Railways, Kommersant’s interlocutor says, they do not agree with this. They believe that the construction of double-track inserts instead of continuous second tracks, as well as the abandonment of the Kuznetsovsky tunnel, will not provide the desired throughput. The Severomuysky tunnel will remain a bottleneck, and it is “unacceptable” to refuse to build a second tunnel.

Therefore, at JSC Russian Railways, Kommersant’s interlocutor says, they believe that in reality the difference in cost between the two plans will not exceed 180 billion rubles.

The main challenge for Russian Railways is that in the context of the Eastern training ground, the company acts in two guises: both as an infrastructure builder and as a carrier, notes the head of Infoline-Analytics, Mikhail Burmistrov.

Until 2020, construction was carried out behind schedule for the commissioning of facilities, and the requirements for increasing carrying capacity were met, including through organizational and technical measures, the expert explains. Now, he clarifies, the volume of construction work and budget development has more than quadrupled compared to the 2020 level and there has been some bias in favor of construction, mainly on the BAM.

JSC Russian Railways “has achieved great success at the Eastern range,” admits Mr. Burmistrov, but “there is a feeling that the company is not paying enough attention to the Trans-Siberian Railway and to organizational and technical measures that ensure an increase in carrying capacity.” At the same time, the expert believes, JSC Russian Railways “should openly talk about the fact that in the context of the growing threat of terrorist attacks (about the explosion in the Severomuisky tunnel, see “Kommersant” dated December 1, 2023) the construction of both a second tunnel and its bypass may be advisable for safety reasons.”

Natalya Skorlygina