It will not be easy for KamAZ to leave – Newspaper Kommersant No. 239 (7440) of 12/23/2022

KamAZ will reduce market sales in 2023 to 40,000 vehicles in the heavy truck segment amid an expected market decline. The company, nevertheless, is betting on the recovery of the tractor segment and hopes to increase sales of its most marginal K4 and K5 line by 60%, mainly due to the latter family. But due to the cost of adapting and improving the K5 model, the company’s profit will be at the level of 5 billion rubles, which is slightly lower than in 2022. Also, the concern in 2023 will determine the parameters of its business in the passenger segment.

KamAZ expects a decline in the heavy truck market and its baseline sales next year. According to the head of the auto concern Sergey Kogogin, the company plans to sell about 40 thousand vehicles with a total market of trucks with a carrying capacity of 14-40 tons in the amount of 65-68 thousand units. In 2022, sales will amount to 44 thousand units with a market of 74 thousand vehicles. Sales figures also include exports of approximately 4,000 vehicles to the CIS countries, Africa and Southeast Asia. As a result, the market and sales of KamAZ will decrease by about 9%, and the share of KamAZ, which this year amounted to 44%, as Mr. Kogogin noted, will remain in the range of 44-50%.

The share of the new line of K4 and K5 trucks in sales will grow immediately by 17 percentage points, up to 26.5%, or 10.6 thousand vehicles. In 2022, KamAZ sold 2.5 thousand trucks with a K4 cab, 1.6 thousand – K5. In 2023, according to Mr. Kogogin, the main volume (9.8 thousand pieces) will fall on K5, and K4 will be assembled “from the remnants” of components. At the same time, its new version is partially included in sales of K5. After the onset of the crisis, the suspension of the work of foreign companies in the Russian Federation and the imposition of sanctions against KamAZ, the domestic automaker had to replace components in the K5 family, which, like the K4, is essentially based on the cab of the German concern Daimler. “When we planned to restart the production of K5, there was a very controversial issue: to repeat what we have, or to offer a better version to finance. And so and so it was approximately the same, and we decided to improve,” Sergey Kogogin explained.

The segment of mainline tractors, according to KamAZ’s expectations, will recover in 2023 after a halving this year. Mr. Kogogin noted that long-haul transportation did not fall as much as truck sales, but fleet renewal has slowed down. Next year, including against the backdrop of the construction of new roads and the efficiency of road transport compared to rail, sales of tractors will amount to about 20 thousand, including up to 8.5 thousand – KamAZ will sell.

A dump truck with a K5 cab, according to him, will be released in the fourth quarter of 2023 – it was supposed to start assembling in early 2022, but the plan moved due to sanctions (see “Kommersant” dated August 23).

Dmitry Babansky from SBS Consulting notes that the only driver for the recovery of the mainline tractor market in 2023 may be the retail logistics segment. The competitiveness of domestic equipment in the market will grow due to the weakening of the ruble expected by the analyst, which will also support exports. Also, he adds, supply chains will be built in a more normal mode, which will also support sales – “there will be more predictable repairs, price stabilization is also possible.”

Despite the growth in the share of a higher margin line, the net profit of KamAZ in 2023, according to the business plan, will amount to 5 billion rubles, this year the car plant will receive “over 5 billion rubles.” arrived.

According to Sergei Kogogin, the investment program for the next year will amount to 20 billion rubles. against 15 billion rubles. in 2022. Investments will also go to the new K5 family. Due to this and the lower margin of the new product, profit indicators will be lower than the current ones.

In addition to the new K5, KamAZ has also invested in the replacement of components for its electric buses, which are supplied to Moscow. According to Mr. Kogogin, the sample has already passed test operation and next year will be supplied under new city contracts.

Also, Sergei Kogogin notes, KamAZ will continue to participate as a “technological partner” in the Moskvich project, and by June it will decide on the parameters and share capital of a separate company that will deal with all the concern’s passenger cars, including the Atom electric car. It is not planned to use the KamAZ brand for it, he stressed. “We would never engage in the passenger car business, but despite what happened on the market, we considered it wrong to stay on the sidelines,” Mr. Kogogin explained, noting that this also has a “social function”. He stressed that KamAZ “will invest here only in electric propulsion projects.” The head of KamAZ noted that Russia needs to return to positions where 80% of the market is filled by its own production. “I admit that AvtoVAZ will be able to produce up to half a million cars, they have the capacity, but our consumer has long been very highly intelligent and would like to have a choice,” he said.

Olga Nikitina