Investors select bets – Kommersant FM
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Deposit rates may still rise, but the risks of missing out on benefits for depositors remain. Since July 2023, the Central Bank has already raised the key rate four times and may do so again before the end of the year, warned the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina. Banks reacted to these decisions with restraint. With a key rate of 15%, the average return on deposits barely exceeds 13%, according to data from the Financial Services platform. Is it profitable to open a deposit now? And what conditions to choose? Ivan Yakunin spoke with financial consultants.
The fundamental question can be posed like this: if you open a deposit now, is there a risk that rates will rise and the profit will be missed? The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, for example, does not rule out such a scenario. This year it was no longer possible to stay within the inflation forecast. The Central Bank has revised the figure: price growth is now expected to be above 7% at the end of the year.
In order to return it to the target of 4% in 2024, the regulator is announcing high rates for several quarters. And the current key indicator of 15% is not the limit, says Digital Broker analyst Daniil Bolotskikh:
“There is still more than a month left until the next Central Bank meeting on the rate, but we can already say that weekly inflation has slowed to 0.14%. We see how the growth rate of consumer lending is decreasing, for example, in September to 1.5%.
However, mortgage and corporate loans are still at a high level and are increasing month by month. The ruble exchange rate affects the same inflation: imported equipment and components become more expensive.”
At the same time, banks are in no hurry to attract funds from depositors: if the Central Bank raised the rate by 1 percentage point, then conditions for deposits improved by 0.5 percentage points on average. Now the average annual deposit rate barely exceeds 12.5%, according to data from the Financial Services portal.
Overall, it is projected to help outpace inflation. But if you wait, you can find special offers from banks: they seasonally improve conditions at the end of December, attracting annual bonuses from clients.
What to choose, comments Timur Nigmatullin, senior investment consultant at Finam: “Deposits do not statistically outpace inflation. To see this, you can simply download the chart from the Bank of Russia website. If you compare the average yield of the ten most profitable deposits with accumulated inflation, the result will disappoint you.
As for raising rates, it seems to me an extremely dubious idea to justify your investment strategy with New Year’s bank promotions.
In general, we see that rates are rising; perhaps they will remain at high levels for a long time. You can slowly wait for suitable offers.”
But then it is not clear what period to choose. Short-term deposits seem profitable: for example, for six months the rates are already above 13%. This is the average. For premium clients with special subscriptions, conditions can reach up to 15%. I would like to fix this yield, because in the official forecast of the Bank of Russia, the key indicator next year will be from 12.5% to 14.5%.
But financial consultant Isaac Becker urges you not to rush: “I wouldn’t bet on an annual deposit. Some part of the money can be put on deposits for a period of three months, the other needs to be invested so that you can withdraw this money at any time.
It will no longer be 14%, but much less. But nevertheless, in difficult times, such an option is always better than an opportunity that seems very favorable, but at the same time prevents you from accessing money for a long period.”
It’s easy to explain this logic: since the beginning of 2023, the dollar has risen in price by 28%, this taking into account the latest weakening to 90 rubles. The decree on the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, which provided such support, will likely last until the presidential elections, then devaluation may resume.
Russians, of course, have the opportunity to open a deposit in yuan or dirhams. But it also has its risks.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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