Investors in solar energy have achieved increased tariff indexation for new projects

As Kommersant found out, investors in solar energy were able to achieve indexation of tariffs for new power plants with a total capacity of 775 MW according to industrial rather than consumer inflation. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the relevant departments to work out a support mechanism until autumn. At the same time, the total monetary volume of RES support will not decrease, but fewer facilities will be built. Investors in renewable energy assure that the financial burden on consumers will not increase either. However, industry is opposed, reminding green gencos of entrepreneurial risks.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the Ministry of Energy, together with the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Federal Antimonopoly Service, to work out the possibility of indexing prices for new projects of solar power plants (SPP) according to industrial rather than consumer inflation (“Kommersant” saw the list of instructions dated August 4). We are talking about SES for 775 MW, selected in 2021. The cost of their production “during the investment phase of project implementation” will be increased according to the producer price index (PPI) excluding the fuel and energy complex, follows from the document. In 2021, the PPI excluding the fuel and energy sector was 17.8%, while consumer inflation was 8.4%. Departments must submit a draft government decree on a new indexation scheme by October 19.

In 2021, two players won the SES project competition. Unigreen Power (controlled by Ream Management of Mikhail Sivoldaev, former deputy chairman of the board of Renova Viktor Vekselberg) took 545 MW, the cost of delivery was 4.3–5.8 thousand rubles. for 1 MW•h. The remaining 230 MW were taken by the structures of Solar Systems (the beneficiary Mikhail Lisyansky) at 5.8–6.4 thousand rubles. The companies did not comment.

Investors in SES have been asking for additional indexation since the spring of 2022, complaining about rising prices for components, including imported silicon (see “Kommersant” dated June 16 and August 5, 2022). The Ministry of Energy opposed the changes, especially for only one type of RES, and the measure was also called ambiguous in the Market Council (regulator of energy markets). At the end of last year, Unigreen Power postponed the launch of new projects by 7-12 months, until mid-2024 and 2025, and Solar Systems – by 21-23 months, until 2025 and 2026.

Alexander Novak instructed, after additional indexation, to carry out a commensurate reduction in the marginal prices of generation for subsequent selection of SPP projects. At the competitions, it remains to play projects with the supply of capacity in 2029-2035. According to the current rules, the price ceiling for solar power plants with a launch in 2029 is 8.28 thousand rubles. per 1 MWh, and by 2035 the figure will drop to 6.29 thousand rubles. (in 2021 prices). The monetary volume of the solar power plant construction program will not be reduced, but the volume of capacity commissioning will decrease.

Now departments and market participants are discussing the details of the new indexation scheme. The problem is that Rosstat has stopped publishing the actual indicator of industrial inflation since 2022, now the Ministry of Economy only gives forecasts for this indicator. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak instructed the Ministry of Economy “to ensure that the actual PPI values ​​excluding the fuel and energy complex for the previous year are sent to the Ministry of Energy” and “to work out the issue of publishing actual values ​​on a regular basis.”

“Any scenario that has ever been discussed does not lead to an increase in the burden on the market due to the simultaneous adjustment of the key parameters of the program for future periods,” Kommersant was told at the Association for the Development of Renewable Energy (ARVE, a lobby for investors in renewable energy).

The “Community of Energy Consumers” (lobby of industrial electricity consumers) do not support indexation of payments for RES.

“Most industries in the Russian Federation, faced with the current economic difficulties, overcome them on their own, reducing costs and profits, fully accepting entrepreneurial risks,” they say. the criterion for the efficiency of the sector is the increase in export potential”.

To assess changes in the operating conditions of enterprises, it is more correct to use the producer price index, since this indicator more correctly measures the dynamics of their cost, says Sergey Sasim, director of the Center for Research in the Electric Power Industry at the Higher School of Economics. However, it is incorrect to talk about a stable excess of one of the deflators over the other, he believes. So, in the forecast of socio-economic development, the PPI excluding the fuel and energy complex for 2022 will be 10%, in 2023 – 5.5%, in 2024 – 4.8%, in 2025 – 4.5%. At the same time, the forecast for consumer inflation for 2023 is 6%, and for 2023-2024 – 4%.

Polina Smertina