Inflation helped record new business in the leasing market

In the first half of the year, the volume of new business in the leasing market reached a historical maximum of 1.49 trillion rubles, several times higher than in previous years. However, the number of leasing transactions increased slightly, which speaks in favor of inflationary growth of the indicator. Against this background, market participants fear a reduction in effective demand and a decline in the quality of the portfolio.

Kommersant got acquainted with data from Expert RA, according to which, based on the results of January-June, the volume of new business in the leasing market reached 1.49 trillion rubles. This is a historical record, double the figure for the same period in 2022 and triple that of 2019-2020.

According to the agency, the volume of new business in corporate segments increased 1.8 times, mainly due to an increase in leasing of railway equipment, the volume of which more than doubled. Expert RA associates the situation with the reorientation of cargo flows to the east and growing demand for railcars. The retail segment grew by 97% mainly due to leasing of vehicles and construction equipment. In particular, the volume of new business with trucks increased 1.4 times, with special equipment – almost 1.2 times.

“The growth of new business in the cargo segment in the first half of the year is associated with pent-up demand for truck tractors. In addition, prices have increased significantly, and alternative Chinese brands have appeared. And in addition, we see an abnormally high demand for dump trucks – almost twice as high as the same period in 2021,” notes Roman Valkov, head of digital sales at Alfa-Leasing Group of Companies.

At the same time, the record result was also ensured by the rise in price of equipment due to rising inflation and a shortage of leased items caused by the departure of a number of large foreign manufacturers from Russia, the authors of the study explain.

Thus, the average cost of a new leasing agreement in the first half of the year was 11.3 million rubles, while a year earlier it was 2 million rubles. below.

However, compared to the first half of 2021, the volume of new business in the first half of 2023 increased by almost 60%, while the number of deals concluded increased by only 4%. At the same time, the share of corporate segments with large checks decreased from 23% to 19%. “Despite the strong growth of the market in monetary terms, in quantitative terms it has only recovered to the level of two years ago (see “Kommersant” dated August 29.— “Kommersant”),” explains Ruslan Korshunov, managing director for banking ratings at Expert RA.

For the second half of the year, experts make forecasts with caution.

“For all areas, inflation will be a significant factor, which will increase the size of the average transaction. But rising prices will limit demand, so it is not yet clear what will ultimately outweigh and what the effect will be on the volume of leasing transactions in monetary terms,” says Suren Asaturov, Deputy Director of the ACRA Financial Institutions Ratings Group.

“The current weakening of the ruble and the growth of the key rate creates new risks of rising costs of imported equipment and spare parts, as well as rising leasing costs. This is a key limiting factor for the growth of economic activity both for the economy as a whole and for the leasing market,” notes Alexander Valentsev, head of the Interleasing sales organization department. The growth of the contract check may be 5–7% compared to the average price in January–July, believes Anton Musatov, General Director of VTB Leasing.

In such a situation, lessors risk facing a deterioration in the quality of their portfolios.

“An increase in the size of checks directly increases the burden on the lessee,” notes Mr. Asaturov. To mitigate the potential risks of non-payments, leasing companies, especially those active in the retail segment, reduce the amount of advance payments and increase the terms of leasing contracts (see “Kommersant” dated August 8).

“The rise in price has a negative impact on sales. However, there are also prerequisites for the fact that more affordable offers will appear due to the huge pent-up demand,” Anatoly Aminov, financial director of LC Europlan, remains optimistic. The general director of Region Leasing, Rustem Mukhamedov, expects that government subsidy programs will be a significant factor of support.

Polina Trifonova