Inflation has increased the index – Newspaper Kommersant No. 7 (7452) of 17.01.

The Moscow Exchange Index fixed above the level of 2200 points, reaching a maximum in two months. The recovery was influenced by the optimistic mood of investors at the beginning of the year regarding the slowdown in inflation in the US, as well as corporate news from Russian issuers. Market participants do not rule out continued growth to 2280-2470 points in the absence of a sharp deterioration in the geopolitical background.

The Russian stock market began the new week with an update of the local maximum on the Moscow Exchange index. At the close of trading on Monday, January 16, he stopped at around 2224.9 points, the highest since November 17. This is 1.13% higher than Friday’s close and 3.3% higher than the end of 2022. At the same time, the volume of trading in shares amounted to 27.3 billion rubles, which is comparable to the value of the previous day and 2–3 times higher than in December 2022.

The optimism at the beginning of the year is associated with a general improvement in investor sentiment around the world.

The MSCI World Index has risen more than 5% since the beginning of the year. European indices turned out to be the growth leaders, adding 8.7-9.3% and returning to highs since February 2022, that is, before the start of the CBO.

“From the point of view of human psychology, the beginning of the year allows many market participants to look at the current situation from scratch,” says Vitaly Isakov, investment director at Otkritie Management Company. Markets continue to be supported by optimism about slowing inflation in the US, which increased the likelihood of a faster stabilization of the Fed’s monetary policy.

In such circumstances, it is difficult not to pay attention to the underestimation of the Russian market, which is a “reverse bubble” or “compressed spring”, Mr. Isakov believes.

The growth of ruble shares was influenced by corporate news: the Kismet deal with HeadHunter, positive trading statistics from the Moscow Exchange and SPB Exchange for 2022.

This news, according to Konstantin Asaturov, managing director of the equity department of Sistema Capital Management Company, contributed to the growth of the companies’ shares. Thus, the shares of SPB Exchange went up on Monday by almost 28%, and the growth came with high investor activity. According to the Moscow Exchange, the volume of trading in shares of the exchange amounted to 2.4 billion rubles, in previous days the figure only occasionally exceeded 100 million rubles. Investors traded more only with Sberbank shares (6.9 billion rubles), even the volume of trading in Gazprom shares was lower (2.2 billion rubles).

However, the growth in the value of Sberbank shares, which account for more than 13% of the index’s weight, was more important, said Alexander Tsyganov, director of the investment and corporate business department at Tsifra Broker. On Monday, ordinary shares of the state bank rose by 1% to 153.19 rubles, the highest since April 2022, while since the beginning of the year they have risen in price by more than 9%. Investors are counting on the lender’s strong financial performance this year and the possible payment of dividends. “Such issuers as TCS Group and VTB are following Sberbank,” notes Elena Kozhukhova, an analyst at Veles Capital.

According to Konstantin Asaturov, the Russian market was also supported by the decision of the Central Bank to start foreign exchange interventions in yuan in the interests of the Ministry of Finance, which gave the market confidence in greater control over the Russian currency.

Under such conditions, market participants do not rule out continued growth of the market. Alexander Tsyganov does not exclude the return of the Moscow Exchange index to the level of 2470 points in the coming months. “In general, short-term sentiment both in the Russian stock market and in foreign risky assets is improving, which allows us to expect a renewal of the November peak on the Moscow Exchange index of 2254 points and the next movement target of 2280 points,” Elena Kozhukhova is more cautious.

According to Vitaly Isakov, the recovery of financial results and dividend payments of listed companies remains the main fundamental driver for the Russian market. Its participants see an increase in the tax burden as well as a new package of sanctions from the EU as key risks for the Russian market. “The market has yet to evaluate the effect of the introduction of a ceiling on prices for Russian oil and oil products,” points out Konstantin Asaturov.

Vitaly Gaidaev