in January 2024 the average loan size fell by 21% compared to December 2023

In January, which is traditionally weak in terms of lending, this year the decline in cash loans was the smallest among all retail segments. Anomalous dynamics were also observed in December. At the same time, the average cash loan amount is decreasing, which is a consequence of tightening regulation and the high key rate of the Central Bank. Banks do not expect the situation to change in the near future.

According to a preliminary estimate by the analytical agency Frank RG, in January the volume of loans issued to individuals decreased by 41.86% (minus 597 billion rubles compared to December), amounting to 828 billion rubles. A decrease in the volume of loans was recorded in all lending segments. The maximum decrease in January 2024 was observed in the mortgage segment – minus 66% by December 2023 and minus 2.8% by January 2023. The smallest decrease over the month was recorded in the segment of cash loans (minus 10.3%), issues amounted to 380 billion rubles.

In quantitative terms, 2.8% more loans were issued compared to December 2023 and 13.8% more loans than in January 2023. The average size of a loan issued over the same period decreased by 21.0%. The average bill in January 2024 amounted to 156.6 thousand rubles, which is 12.8% lower than in December 2023. “This may be due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as seasonality,” notes leading analyst at Frank RG Ksenia Matenkova.

At the same time, a month earlier, cash loans were the lagging segment of retail lending. According to Frank RG estimates, in December 2023, cash loans experienced the maximum decline in issuances – by 9% by November 2023, while there was growth in other retail segments. The decrease occurred despite the fact that December is traditionally a month with a high volume of issuances (see “Kommersant” on January 12).

At high loan rates, players reduce the volume of average checks so as not to increase the debt burden of borrowers, VTB noted. “A decrease in the average check is a normal reaction of the market to the macroprudential limits introduced by the Bank of Russia,” Alfa Bank agrees. “The impact on the check also forms the flow of part of loans with large amounts into the segment of collateralized lending – loans secured by real estate, as well as secured by collateral for cars. and motor vehicles.”

VTB does not expect that, given the Central Bank’s policy, sales of cash loans will begin to grow in the near future. If it continues in the future, the current trends in the reduction of checks may intensify, Alfa Bank believes. “The behavior of borrowers in the framework of unsecured consumer lending is based on the fact that with the Central Bank’s key rate in the range of 6–9%, clients tend to utilize the entire limit on cash loans, which can often reach 5–6 monthly earnings,” explains independent expert Andrei Barkhota .—If the key rate rises above 12%, borrowers tend to limit the limit used on cash loans, taking out loans in the amount of 60–80% of the maximum limit approved by banks.” The remaining household needs are met through short-term non-bank loans, credit cards and savings on consumption, he adds.

At the same time, the cash loan segment is second only to mortgages in size, notes Anna Avakimyan, chief analyst at RegBlock. “However, borrowers are more sensitive to rising interest rates on these loans. This is due to the lack of preferential lending programs and the lower prevalence of refinancing due to the short loan period,” she adds.

“The issuance of consumer loans this year will be significantly lower than last year,” expects Managing Director of the Expert RA rating agency Yuri Belikov.

Ksenia Dementieva, Yulia Poslavskaya