In February, banks issued 22% more loans than in January

In February 2024, banks issued loans to Russians in the amount of 1.024 trillion rubles, which is 3.3% higher than in February 2023, and 22.6% higher than a month earlier, according to data from the analytical agency Frank RG.

At the end of February, all retail segments showed growth, except for POS lending: -9.54%, or -3.8 billion rubles. by January 2024. The average bill for a POS loan decreased by 5.7% compared to January, to 32.5 thousand rubles; in quantitative terms, this figure is 4.1% lower than the level of January 2024 and 3.9% lower than the level of February 2023 of the year. Previously, bankers already expected a slowdown in growth rates in the POS lending segment (see “Kommersant” dated January 25).

“The slowdown in POS in January-February is regular, since the volume of installments correlates with the seasonal decline in consumer activity between the New Year and spring holidays. Moreover, at the beginning of 2024 there were no new external shocks that would stimulate the impulsive purchase of expensive equipment on credit,” notes Ivan Uklein, senior director for bank ratings at the Expert RA agency. In addition, according to the expert, the level of interest rates, taking into account the temporary lifting of PSC restrictions, does not stimulate active purchases with credit funds.

“For the banks themselves, the POS product is rarely profitable; it is usually used as a sales funnel for subsequent upselling. The growth in retail trade turnover in January slowed to +9% (versus +11% in the fourth quarter of 2023),” Mr. Uklein cites data from Expert RA.

The maximum growth in February 2024 was recorded in the car lending segment – +29.42% compared to January 2024 and +115.4% compared to February 2023. In total, 121 thousand car loans were issued for a total amount of 171.3 billion rubles. This is a new all-time high. The average bill remained virtually unchanged compared to January and amounted to 1.4 million rubles.

In February, banks issued 2.8 million cash loans worth RUB 495 billion. In monetary terms, this is 28% more than a month earlier and 8% more than a year earlier. In quantitative terms, 15.74% more loans were issued compared to January 2024 and 28.21% more loans than in February 2023, but the average size of a loan issued over the same period decreased by 15.22% and amounted to 174.0 thousand rubles.

The smallest growth over the month was recorded in the mortgage segment.

Over the past month, 82.8 thousand mortgage loans were issued for a total amount of 322.5 billion rubles. The figures for February 2024 are 16.88% higher than January 2024 and 24.03% lower than February 2023. The average size of a loan issued for the second month in a row showed a decrease and in February 2024 amounted to 3.89 million rubles.

The recovery in February is associated with a greater number of working days in January than in February, as well as with the seasonality factor, says Irina Nosova, senior director of the ACRA group of financial institution ratings. “After a traditionally active December, loan issuances and sales volumes decline at the beginning of the year, while a classic recovery begins in February. At the same time, it is necessary to pay more attention to year-on-year dynamics, which are falling only in mortgages due to high rates, tightening requirements and extremely high real estate prices. Growth in other retail segments compared to February 2023 is associated with the continuing increase in consumer prices and the desire of citizens to purchase necessary goods before the next increase in their cost,” she describes the situation on the market.

At the same time, despite the strong growth in February, experts are not yet sure that this is a long-term trend. “It is possible to introduce new factors limiting lending to individuals, mainly regulatory (in particular, from the middle of the year the Bank of Russia will be able to apply macroprudential limits in mortgages). For the year as a whole, we can expect the following dynamics: growth in mortgage issuance will be approximately 10%, consumer loans about 7–8%,” concludes Konstantin Borodulin, director of bank ratings at NRA.

Polina Trifonova