In 2024–2027, growth rates in the vehicle leasing market may slow down

In 2024–2027, the growth rate in the vehicle leasing market may slow down, experts and market participants predict. This is due to the tightening of monetary policy and the slowdown in business investment activity, the rising cost of cars, and persistent geopolitical and logistics risks. In addition, in 2023, the business was already able to satisfy the accumulated pent-up demand.

According to the forecasts of Expert RA, which Kommersant got acquainted with, the volume of new business in the segment passenger cars by the end of 2023 it will show growth of about 55–60%. It will be ensured by rising car prices and the realization of pent-up demand. However, in the future, the growth rate in the segment will slow down: for the period from 2024 to 2027, the annual growth rate will decrease to values ​​in the range of 20–30%, the average annual growth rate of new business in passenger cars until 2027 will be 31%, follows from the materials of Expert RA”.

A similar trend will be observed in the segment truck transport. “The volume of new business in the truck segment by the end of 2023 will show an increase of about 120%, as large road carriers and construction companies are actively covering the fleet deficit with Chinese equipment, and the development of infrastructure projects and building new logistics will stimulate the increase in cargo transportation and the demand for related equipment,”— follows from the research materials. However, according to the “Strategy for the Development of the Manufacturing Industry until 2030” updated by the government in September 2023, sales of trucks are expected to recover to 100 thousand units by 2024. Sales in 2026 will be consistent with the average annual sales in 2015–2021, and the market will gradually grow at 1% per year from 2027 onwards. Accordingly, in 2024–2027, the growth rate of new business in truck leasing will be no more than 10–20%, and the average annual rate will be 25%.

Among the factors that will slow down the growth rate of new business in the segment, Expert RA analysts also point out geopolitical (sanctions pressure, problems in logistics and in the work of dealers) and macroeconomic (tightening monetary policy, low investment activity of business, declining consumer demand ) risks, as well as continued growth in prices for cars and components for them. However, there will also be factors that will help avoid a more significant drop in the market, Expert RA experts are sure. These include government subsidies, the active development of the car sharing and taxi market, the implementation of infrastructure projects, an increase in the volume of cargo transportation and the launch of a new cycle of fleet renewal by enterprises.

Leasing companies interviewed by Kommersant agree that the stage of rapid growth in the leasing market for cars and trucks is coming to an end. However, they are confident that the segment will maintain profitability and are not ready to abandon it. “The corporate park market requires updating. This will be the main driver for leasing,” admits Sberbank Leasing CEO Vyacheslav Spirov. “The key to the development of the car market should be the further development of the infrastructure of Chinese car manufacturers here in Russia, and most importantly, the restart of production at the largest car factories,” believes Anatoly Aminov, financial director of Europlan LC. “It is likely that the rapid growth of the market will indeed slow down. We do not see market growth rates of more than 15% annually in the coming years, which would also be very good in the context of the current macroeconomics and geopolitics.” Motor transport has a relatively high turnover, which should support significant demand and maintain at least double-digit growth rates over the next few years, Rosbank Leasing CEO Guram Kudryavtsev disagrees.

Polina Trifonova