IEA: oil exports from Russia in March rose to the highest level in three years

In March 2023, Russian oil exports rose to the highest level since April 2020, according to the monthly review International Energy Agency (IEA). By February, total shipments rose to 8.1 million barrels per day, and delivery volumes to 3.1 million. Estimated revenues amounted to $12.7 billion (a drop of 43% yoy).

The agency’s analysts expect global oil demand to reach a record 101.9 million barrels per day by the end of 2023. Up to 90% of the growth will be provided by China and the countries it supports, the IEA believes. OPEC+ cuts over the same period would result in a 400,000 bpd drop in global supply—a rise in production by countries outside the cartel does not offset the decline in the aggregate.

“The voluntary OPEC+ restrictions, coupled with the announced cuts in Russian production, appear to be an attempt to support prices amid the financial turmoil in mid-March. Probably, the growth of world reserves also contributed to the decision,” the IEA said.

Sectoral stocks of countries participating in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to the agency, increased by 53 million barrels in January to 2.8 billion barrels, which was the highest level since July 2021. Growth continued in February, but by March it fell by 39 million barrels at once (a record monthly drop in a year).

These factors could lead to a significant supply gap in the second half of 2023, IEA analysts say. The announced cuts will exacerbate tensions and push up prices for both crude oil and petroleum products, the agency said.

Read more about the decision of OPEC + to cut production together with Russia – in the publication “Kommersant” “Foreign countries did not let us down”.

Grigory Leiba