How analysts assessed the parameters of the new placement of Tinkoff Bank
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The market misunderstood the news about the additional issue of Tinkoff Bank. This is what SberInvestments analysts think. In their opinion, the negative effect of this decision is greatly exaggerated, and now is a favorable moment to buy shares of the company. TCS shareholder Vladimir Potanin announced the parameters of the new placement on March 20. He said the bank had agreed to issue 130 million shares. This is twice as high as experts expected. Is it really not that bad? Ivan Yakunin learned the opinion of market participants.
In general, Tinkoff Bank refused to comment on the deal, pointing out that it still needs to be approved by shareholders. The meeting is scheduled for May 8. Alfa Bank analysts, having studied the condition of Rosbank, said that 61 million shares of Tinkoff Bank would be required to purchase it.
However, Vladimir Potanin reported that the company had agreed to issue 130 million shares. Digital Broker analyst Natalia Pyryeva reacts with skepticism: “This is a lot. Now, relatively speaking, 200 million pieces are in circulation. My colleagues and I were also somewhat surprised. Traditionally, we value banks at their cost per capital. If we calculate the size of the additional issue by the price that Tinkoff Bank is now announcing, we will get an estimate of the value of Rosbank equal to two capitals.
And a very logical question arises: why pay 2 rubles for something when it costs 1 ruble? We assume this is due to the fact that the controlling shareholder does not want to recognize his share.”
The market also reacted with fear: at the moment, Tinkoff shares fell in price by 7%. But then we managed to win back half of the fall. According to Potanin, the share price at the time of placement will be 3.42 rubles. – 8% higher than the current market. The proceeds will be used to buy back not only Rosbank, but also its debt – that’s about another 40 billion rubles. Quite a lot – about a quarter of the cost of the bank itself. But the 130 million share valuation still looks high. Senior analyst at BCS World of Investments Elena Tsareva, however, believes that the resulting placement may be smaller: “We don’t yet know the price of the transaction. There is a significant component here that may simply not be realized, and this will lead to the fact that the additional issue will be much more modest.
Shareholders who do not vote or vote against will have the right to purchase the number of shares that will allow them not to dilute their stake. But these potential pre-emptive rights may not be realized. That is, we can see the voting: everyone is present, and everyone voted in favor. Then there will be no need to exercise the preemptive right. Everything else will then be unused and cancelled, and the additional issue will be of completely different sizes.”
SberInvestments analysts share the same opinion. They point out that the redemption price is higher than the market price, so shareholders will not want to use their property rights, and the bank will issue a maximum of 67 million new securities. All this, according to TKS forecasts, will make it possible to include a systemically important bank in the group’s perimeter, and as a result, the holding will enter the top 5 in terms of the volume of household assets and the top 4 in terms of the volume of the loan portfolio. Arikapital investment strategist Sergei Suverov believes that the end justifies the means:
“There are questions about the size of the additional issue, but this does not call into question the long-term advantage of such a deal for Tinkoff Bank and Rosbank, because there is synergy, there are opportunities to optimize costs, including on personnel and marketing. In the long term, Tinkoff Bank looks like a fairly attractive asset.
We really need to wait for news on Rosbank’s assessment. And when it becomes clear that it is not overvalued, then it’s probably worth buying shares of Tinkoff Bank. For now we need to take a wait-and-see approach.”
Brokers have also taken a wait-and-see approach; they say that the target price for TCS is either under review or does not take into account the effect of the upcoming transaction. Bank shareholder Vladimir Potanin is optimistic and says: “This is the same situation when one plus one will give more than two.” When assessing a bank, however, the mathematics will be more familiar.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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