high rates and limited demand are holding back growth

Based on the results of nine months, the leasing market in quantitative terms increased by 70% year on year. The largest increase in new business volumes was provided by leasing of railway transport, motor vehicles and special equipment. However, the renewal cycle for corporate and commercial vehicles is coming to an end, and demand from lessees is dampened by high rates. Therefore, market participants and experts expect growth to slow down to 7-10% in 2024, mainly due to the equipment segment.

Based on the results of three quarters of 2023, the number of new leased items transferred to clients amounted to 480 thousand, exceeding last year’s figure by 70% and the 2021 figure by 13%, follows from the NRA review, which Kommersant got acquainted with. The dynamics improved compared to previous periods: in the first half of the year the growth was 62%, in the first quarter – less than 30%. In the third quarter of 2023, the number of new leased items transferred to clients reached 188 thousand units—a record value since the beginning of 2021.

The greatest growth (80%) is observed in the railway leasing segment, which is primarily caused by the reorientation of freight flows to the eastern direction. In addition, the growth was provided by the segments of motor transport (by 70%) and special equipment (by 65%). However, in both segments it was heterogeneous, the NRA emphasizes.

Thus, in the special equipment segment, rapid growth (more than 50%) was observed in road construction equipment, lifting equipment and other special equipment, while in the warehouse equipment and agricultural equipment segments the growth was less than 20%.

In new passenger cars, the number of leased items grew by approximately 20% over three quarters, while in the used car segment it more than doubled.

At the same time, experts no longer expect such high growth rates next year. According to NRA analysts, the renewal cycle for corporate and freight vehicles is coming to an end, and tight monetary policy will cool demand from potential lessees.

According to the agency’s forecast, the volume of new business in 2024 will grow by no more than 7–10%, to 620–640 thousand units. “The lessees will not renew their parks every year. Therefore, leasing companies will have to pay attention to the industrial equipment sector. Another promising niche is wagons and containers. Here, logistics chains have extended to the east, and more and more cars are needed,” explains Sergei Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service.

Lessors themselves believe that growth in the market next year should be expected mainly in monetary terms against the backdrop of an increase in the cost of leased items and contract rates.

“Some entrepreneurs decided to temporarily postpone financing until rates stabilize, but it is already clear that the increase in rates is passed on to the cost of the service or product to the end consumer,” notes Alfa-Leasing Group Sales Director Alexander Golankov. Motor transport and special equipment occupy more than 60% of the total new business in the leasing market, and prices for motor vehicles have already increased by 15–20% since the beginning of the year, which is reflected in the growth of the market as a whole without taking into account the increase in quantitative terms, notes Maxim, CEO of the Gazprombank Leasing group Kalinkin.

The demand for leasing of industrial equipment associated with capital investments of companies will remain, but there will not be explosive growth or serious acceleration, says Mikhail Gonopolsky, managing director of the Insight investment group. Now the bulk of industrial equipment on the Russian market is imported from China, and accordingly, its cost is tied to the yuan exchange rate, Interleasing explains. “The pace of localization of various industries will have a positive impact, but a significant increase in the leasing of industrial equipment in 2024 is unlikely,” agrees Mr. Kalinkin.

According to Suren Asaturov, Deputy Director of the ACRA Group of Financial Institutions Ratings, in conditions of limited financing, government programs to stimulate both demand and supply will have a significant impact on the dynamics of the industry.

Polina Trifonova