he will follow the channel that has been laid” – Newspaper Kommersant No. 21 (7466) dated 02/06/2023

In the container transportation segment, despite the difficult international situation, demand is growing, and already announced investments by market participants in the infrastructure for transporting containers by rail by 2025 will amount to about 140 billion rubles. The executive director of the Eurasian Union of Rail Freight Transport Participants (ESP, unites more than 90% of the entire container rail transport market) told Kommersant about what the container market needs and does not absolutely need in order to continue developing. Sergey Avseykov.

— How did the container market end in 2022? JSC Russian Railways showed statistics showing an increase in container traffic by rail, FESCO, in turn, taking into account port capacities, speaks of a decline … What, in your opinion, are the real results?

– The real results are the preservation of the volumes of the previous period, despite all the perturbations in terms of directions.

At the end of last year, container manufacturers showed confident dynamics and high motivation not only to preserve, but also to develop the market. This is the only logistics segment that went all in last year and invested a lot in infrastructure – sea terminals, transport and logistics centers (TLC), purchase of containers. We talked about a shortage of 77,000 containers – all of them were contracted last year. As a measure of support, we proposed extending the zero rate of import duty for this year. We were supported by various departments on this issue, we are waiting for a positive decision of the EEC.

As for the fleet, I know that most of our participants are trying to take ships in all basins – in the east, in the south, and in the northwest. Within a year, instead of international lines, own line services were created. A very big gap for container shipping is the fleet. If we talk about country transport security, then we have almost everything: terminals, containers, wagons, locomotives, infrastructure. But the fleet needs help – with subsidies, tax breaks. And it doesn’t matter whose fleet it belongs to, because you just need to ensure demand and distribute the cargo flow. Strategically, of course, you need to buy ships. As for building – here I am not ready to say that it is possible to develop domestic shipbuilding so quickly. There are industry investors, but they need support – subsidies, maybe grants. Transport is like water: it will go along the channel that has been laid. We need to break through this channel to the end.

— Isn’t the problem of maritime container traffic in the North-West the refusal of transshipment hubs to work with Russia?

There are other routes from the Northwest. Rather, the issue is that the ships must be of ice class, and they are more expensive. The ship is worth tens of millions of dollars. The northwest is now more expensive than the east direction: the price is stabilizing, but this will not happen tomorrow. And now we need the most accessible and simple mechanisms of state support for exporters and equalization of transport costs: sent a container – received, for example, a fixed subsidy of $ 2,000, the difference with the east.

— What lies ahead for the container market in 2023?

– Height. The Ministry of Transport and other interested parties asked us (ESP.— “b”) about this, we answered: in the presence of infrastructural restrictions, the growth of both exports and imports will be about 9%. With greater opportunities for quotas, up to 15% will increase exports and more than 15% – imports. Because there is a demand. The first quarter will traditionally drop a little because of the holidays both here and in China. But then there will be growth. In terms of destinations, exports and imports are interrelated. All those containers that arrived for export, plus gondola cars, are sent for import. Therefore, today it is important both railway and port and terminal development.

— Last autumn, there was an influx of containerized cargo into the ports of the Far East, which caused problems with their export. Is this situation expected to continue in 2023?

– At the moment, the decision that was prioritized by Russian Railways – loading imports into gondola cars – helps to resolve the situation. Traditionally, the imbalance of wagon flows is 40% of exports for 60% of imports, but we still need to deliver the empty car somehow. Now, taking into account the fact that everyone wants to go east, firstly, empty containers do not pass through, and secondly, all exports have reoriented there, there is an imbalance. But it must be taken into account that the gondola cars will not completely unload everything, because the weather conditions must be good, so that the roads from the ports to the rear terminals are passable and there are enough cars. Container operators began to purchase vehicles and relocate them to the Far East. The situation is getting better, but it takes time. It is also important to understand that gondola cars with containers are oriented towards the West Siberian Railway, but there are not so many terminals for unloading there, specifically in terms of additional capacity for gondola cars. There are terminals, but they are occupied by container trains. Therefore, this decision is not a panacea, because in addition to imports, there is also export.

As for imports, there will be demand, and it will be higher than today. Imports are required not only for the consumer market, but also, which is very significant, for all industries and agriculture. It is necessary to build and develop terminals and ports, more container infrastructure is required, gravitating towards the Eastern test site as a whole.

— Is it necessary to increase the number of trains bringing platforms to the east?

– It’s necessary. But for today, the real task is to transport the existing container trains, plus three fixed by the decision of the president, in the direction of the Far East – at least at the level of November last year. Balancing the park is achieved through exports. The more exports, the more efficiently imports are exported. The difference is closed by loading into gondola cars. Transportation of containers on platforms is what it should be. We also positively assess the work of twin container trains.

— Do the companies have any plans for terminals this year?

– Last year we considered: the prospective volume of private investments of companies in the TLC is about 140 billion rubles. until 2025. People are ready to invest money because they believe in this direction and in this volume.

— Now, in reality, does coal compete with containers at the Eastern landfill?

— Coal competes with everyone at the Eastern range. And it’s good that in such a situation, in particular, the window of opportunity does not close for containers. Of course, we want more, we want a balance based on the total economic effects for the country and the budget. It is necessary to compare: take, for example, coal, oil cargo, containers and look from the point of view of social, economic and budgetary effects.

We conducted research work with the Center for Infrastructure Economics and the Center for Strategic Research, analyzing the budgetary efficiency: how much container cargo brings to the country’s budget and economy, including in comparison with other cargo. It turns out that the effect of containerized cargo is many times greater. Moreover, these are, as a rule, high value-added products, and a synonym for a high level of value added is high added value. And more people are involved. A container is a sign of a highly developed economy.

Based on the results of this work, we have a working dialogue with the Ministry of Transport, Russian Railways. For example, it was said earlier that one container train “takes off” three coal trains. We also took such proportions so as not to argue, although now one container train is one coal train. But let’s look at this issue more broadly. As part of our study, we calculated that enterprises that depend on imports in containers are 13.3% of GDP. And this figure is really important, it should be based on it. Given all that’s going on, a balanced approach to infrastructure distribution is needed. One region and one cargo cannot occupy 70% of the scarce infrastructure.

– But there are instructions from the President on the export of coal, and Kuzbass complains that these volumes have not been exported …

– You need to read them carefully. In fact, all target indicators of the President’s instructions have been taken into account and are being implemented. We have checked this issue. Moreover, in our study, within the framework of the target scenario, we provide for the preservation of coal export volumes at the Eastern polygon at the level of 2021: this, I note, is the maximum export volume since 1992.

The adjustment that took place last year due to the need to take out imported containers from the Far East will be leveled this year. This has already been announced by Russian Railways. Therefore, there is no default in terms of volumes, but a country balance is needed.

— What sections of the Eastern range should be developed based on the interests of container traffic specifically?

– There you need to develop the same points as for coal, for example, Mariinsk-Mezhdurechensk. And if you do not take the main passage, then you need to develop parks of port stations. Exporters, taking into account unpredictable shipments, need to accumulate shiploads. They need to send a hundred containers, and they were given 50. They will not load 50 on the ship – they will wait until 50 more arrive. We also need to develop rear terminals, the way they were developed in St. Petersburg: Shushary, Yanino, etc. Next, we need to develop border crossings and related infrastructure, including with partners: we are not alone there. And it is absolutely necessary to develop roads: this is also a big problem. We are not talking about access roads to the terminals, but somewhere we need a decoupling, somewhere – a section of the federal highway. We have a federal level, we have a regional level, but someone has to collect all this and shift the schedules somewhere, hold precise measures. The experience of the Central Transport Hub has shown that the developed infrastructure has pulled container cargo to itself. And the same will happen in Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, the Far East.

— We are told that now 70% of containerized cargo at the Eastern range is the products of the timber industry complex. What needs to be done to ensure that this particular type of cargo goes east in such quantities, and what are the problems with this?

– There is a problem. The point of origin of timber cargo is Eastern Siberia, where these enterprises are located.

“But now we have a significant part of this production redirected from the regions of the north-west …

“Even with that forest, there are problems. After the introduction of restrictions on European destinations, everyone has the same problem: the flows need to be balanced. But in the east, in order to load timber, platforms with containers are needed. Where can they come from? They can either appear from unloading during import, or from a shipment, but empty ones are not allowed there, because it is inefficient. The stream that comes from the west is not enough to load timber and reload containers from gondola cars onto platforms. Perhaps we need to give more quotas for exports from the West. And the same empty – within reasonable limits, it is also needed.

— Does the container market need the development of a global rail transport reform?

— The container market, as a business market, always needs new investment segments.

– Like anyone else.

– Yes. Any reform suggests that we are taking some segment into the private market, is this the point of the reform? But how far the time has come for this, I am not ready to judge, now we need to develop public-private partnerships. Very global tasks need to be solved today in the field of logistics. Now for container companies, which provide a significant contribution to the country’s GDP, a high degree of predictability, economic and technological, is required. We have a long planning horizon, and we are ready to provide stable volumes.

Interviewed by Natalya Skorlygina