Germany and Denmark are trying to replace gas pipelines with wind turbines

Germany and Denmark plan to commission a wind power center on the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea by 2030, Bloomberg reported on August 29, citing the governments of both countries. According to the agency, within the framework of the Bornholm Energy Island project, it is planned to create several wind farms, the energy received there will be distributed between the two countries.

“The capacity of the project after launch in 2030 will exceed 3 GW – enough to supply energy to 4.1 million households,” the agency said. The cost will be about 9 billion euros, of which 3 billion euros will need to be invested in the infrastructure of the project, another 6 billion – for the construction of the wind farm itself.

Vice-Chancellor, German Energy Minister Robert Habek stressed that the project is designed to reduce dependence on Russian gas. In addition, according to the EU plans, the community plans to increase the capacity of offshore (offshore) wind power from the current 12 GW to 300 GW by 2050.

According to BP, Denmark consumes about 2.3 bcm. m of gas per year. In 2021Gazprom» exported to Denmark under a contract with Orsted Salg & Service 1.97 billion cubic meters. m of gas. But at the beginning of June 2022, due to the refusal of the Danish company to pay for fuel in rubles, exports stopped.

Germany consumes more than 90 billion cubic meters. m of gas per year. According to the FTS,Gazprom» exported about 50.7 billion cubic meters to the country in 2021 m. This year, the volume of Russian exports to the EU has decreased: according to Gazprom, over 7.5 months, gas supplies to non-CIS countries have fallen by 36.2% to 78.5 billion cubic meters. m. According to the European Network of Gas Transportation System Operators (ENTSOG) and the calculations of Vedomosti, on August 28, Gazprom exported about 122 million cubic meters to the EU. m of gas against 439.6 million cubic meters. m a year earlier on the same date.

After the start of the NWO in Ukraine, the EU adopted a plan to stop the consumption of Russian fuel REPowerEU, which provides for a three-fold reduction in the consumption of Russian gas by the end of 2022. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2021 the Russian Federation supplied about 140 billion cubic meters to the EU. m of pipeline gas, while this year this figure may fall to 80 billion cubic meters. m.

The project of wind farms on Bornholm appeared at a time when the EU countries are trying to integrate energy into a new situation for Europe with sharply increased energy prices. According to the Nord Pool exchange, on August 29, electricity in Germany and Denmark cost 659 euros per MWh.

According to Bloomberg, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the EU is preparing proposals to reform the electricity market due to the rapid rise in electricity prices. In particular, the Czech Republic and Belgium announced the need to set maximum prices for electricity within the EU.

According to Vasily Tanurkov, director of the ACRA corporate ratings group, 3 GW of wind power can replace 1.15-1.92 billion cubic meters. m of gas per year. According to BP, over the past 10 years, gas consumption in Denmark has almost halved, but in Germany, on the contrary, it has increased by almost 10 billion cubic meters. m per year.

At the same time, in the summer of 2021, calm weather in Europe became one of the causes of the energy crisis, increasing demand and prices for gas. Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute Alexander Frolov recalls that an increase in the capacity of wind farms does not mean an increase in electricity generation: in 2021, the generation of wind generation in the EU decreased. “It was the inadequate rate on wind and solar generation that weakened the maneuverability of the European energy sector and made it vulnerable to the blows of the energy crisis,” the expert notes. .

According to Tanurkov, if sanctions against Russia remain high, spot prices will remain high in the coming years, and this will lead to a gradual decrease in gas consumption. On the TTF hub in the Netherlands on August 29, September futures were trading at about $2,950 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to ICE. m. In recent days, quotes have exceeded $3,000 per 1,000 cubic meters. m.

The expert added that 300 GW of wind power, which the EU plans to put into circulation by 2050, can replace about 350 billion cubic meters. m of gas in heat generation or almost 600 billion cubic meters. m – in power generation. “But it must be taken into account that these capacities will replace not only gas generation,” the analyst emphasized.

Taking into account the current load level of wind farms located in Denmark, the commissioning of a hub with a capacity of 3 GW will allow increasing generation by about 6.8 billion kWh per year, said Ivan Timonin, a consultant at Vygon Consulting. He added that the efficiency of gas thermal power plants is 45-55%. “As a result, the new wind farm will replace the consumption of about 1.3 billion cubic meters. m of gas,” the expert believes.

By 2030, according to Timonin, taking into account plans to increase renewable energy sources and develop alternative energy sources, gas consumption in Germany will decrease to about 85 billion cubic meters. m per year, and Denmark – up to 2 billion cubic meters. m.

Senior analyst “Alfa bank» Nikita Blokhin believes that a wind farm with a capacity of 3 GW can replace the electricity generated by burning an average of 5.5-6.5 billion cubic meters. m. of gas per year. In terms of production sharing for Germany, which in recent years has consumed on average more than 95 billion cubic meters. m. per year, share of falling volumes [потребления газа] won’t be that significant. Even if we assume that most of the electricity from the project can be redirected to Germany, in energy terms this represents less than 10% of Russian pipeline exports, which in 2021 amounted to more than 50 billion cubic meters. m, said Blokhin.