German Gref allowed the key rate to remain at the same level in 2023

The head of Sberbank German Gref admitted that in 2023 the Central Bank will not reduce the key rate. In his opinion, this will happen if the GDP growth rate is near zero, and inflation is in the range of 5-6%.

“GDP growth rates, according to our expectations, will be near zero this year. Inflation, according to our estimates, will be in the range of 5-6% due to wage growth amid low unemployment and a recovery in demand, as well as a weakening of the national currency,” Mr. Gref said at a press conference (cited by Prime). As a result, the Central Bank is likely to refuse to cut the rate, he added.

How spoke previously the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, quarterly GDP growth in annual terms will begin in mid-2023. According to the forecast of the Central Bank, GDP by the end of 2023 will be in the range of + -1%.

The head of the Central Bank also spokethat the likelihood of a key rate hike in 2023 is still higher than the likelihood of a cut. According to her, a rate hike may be needed to keep inflation close to 4% in 2024.

February 10, the Central Bank for the third time in a row left key rate at 7.5%. The regulator promised to make decisions on the key rate, taking into account the dynamics of inflation. The Central Bank will also track how the decision to reduce oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day and the entry into force of the embargo on petroleum products will affect the oil market.

Anastasia Larina