“Gazprom” dropped the stock market

The beginning of trading in Gazprom shares, excluding dividend payments, led to the collapse of their quotations, which led to a collapse in the Russian stock market at the beginning of exchange trading. The Moscow Exchange Index collapsed by almost 9%, to a minimum since February 24. Nervousness was added by the growth of tension in connection with the escalation of the conflict with Ukraine. However, at the end of the day, the ruble index won back most of the decline – investors increased their investments in securities that had fallen in price.

The Russian stock market started the new week with another collapse. Immediately at the opening, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 8.7% to 1775 points, the lowest level since February 24. The locomotives of this movement were the shares of “Gazprom” and partly the securities of “Tatneft”. Securities of the gas company collapsed at the opening of the main session by almost 30%, to 137 rubles, the lowest value since February 24. Quotes of ordinary shares of Tatneft fell at the opening by 18%, preferred shares lost 10% in price.

This movement was largely technical in nature. Before the start of the trading session, Sinara investment bank analysts did not rule out a fall in the MOEX index to the level of 1800 points, due to the fact that the shares of Gazprom and Tatneft have been trading “without dividends” since Monday.

Shareholder registers are closed on October 11, but due to the fact that settlements on the exchange are carried out in two days, only the owners of securities who bought them no later than last Friday received the right to dividends.

For Gazprom, semi-annual dividends will amount to 51.03 rubles, for Tatneft – 32.71 rubles.

Given the high weight of Gazprom shares in the Moscow Exchange index, which was almost 15% before the collapse, the fall in the company’s shares caused a sale of other securities. At the beginning of the day, the most liquid shares lost 4-7% in price. In addition, according to Anna Mikhailova, an analyst for Russian shares of Ingosstrakh-Investments Management Company, the escalation of the geopolitical situation had a significant impact on the market dynamics.

However, the sale quickly fizzled out, and by the end of the first hour of the main session, all the most liquid securities won back the decline of the first minutes of trading. At the end of the day, the shares added 2.6-5% in price. This allowed the Moscow Exchange index to partially recover, which ended trading at 1916.97 points, which is only 1.4% lower than Friday’s close. Losses were recorded by the shares of Gazprom (16.2%) and Tatneft (3.5% and 2% respectively). According to Kommersant’s interlocutor on the stock market, the reversal occurred without a clear improvement in the news background and may be associated with the appearance of a large buyer. “The speed of recovery speaks in favor of this: it usually takes several hours, but here everything grew back within half an hour,” notes the interlocutor of Kommersant. “The morning bounce is due to the fact that some investors decided to simply buy back some assets on a drawdown,” says Konstantin Asaturov, managing director of the department for working with shares of Sistema Capital Management Company.

The growth of political risks has not bypassed the foreign exchange market. At the beginning of the day, the dollar exchange rate rose by 2.1 rubles at exchange auctions, to the mark of 63.1 rubles/$, the maximum since the beginning of July. At the end of the day, it stopped near the mark of 62.7 rubles/$, having added 1.7 rubles per day. The euro exchange rate rose by 1.6 rubles during the day, to 61.4 rubles/€. “Given the low activity of exporters due to the remoteness of the tax period, volatility in the foreign exchange market may persist – the dollar exchange rate in the coming days may remain in the upper part of the range of 60-65 rubles / $, which looks balanced in terms of a combination of market and fundamental factors,” notes Evgeniy Loktyukhov, Head of Economic and Industry Analysis Department, PSB.

Meanwhile, stock market participants do not expect a quick recovery. “In addition to the unclear situation with sanctions, there is still high uncertainty in geopolitics, with energy prices and domestic regulation, especially in terms of taxation,” Konstantin Asaturov points out. At the same time, according to Anna Mikhailova, the return of paid Gazprom dividends to the market in a couple of weeks may lead to purchases in the market.

Vitaly Gaidaev