Exporters save currency – Kommersant

During the current week, the activity of the foreign exchange market participants has noticeably decreased. The average daily trading volume amounted to about 190 billion rubles, which is 20% lower than the previous week. Analysts attribute what is happening to the low activity of exporters, who are holding foreign exchange earnings in anticipation of more attractive levels. However, not all companies have sufficient ruble liquidity to pay taxes, and therefore foreign currency sales may increase in the coming days, which will temporarily return the dollar to the range of 78-79 rubles / $, analysts say.

For the fourth day in a row, there has been low trading activity on the foreign exchange market, despite the tax period in Russia. According to Kommersant’s estimate, based on data from the Moscow Exchange, on Thursday, May 25, the total volume of trading in major currencies (US dollar, euro, yuan, Turkish lira, Hong Kong dollar, Kazakhstani tenge, Belarusian ruble) with the delivery of “tomorrow” did not reach up to 190 billion rubles. The average daily figure this week amounted to 187 billion rubles, which is 20% lower than the previous week and 15% lower than the same period in April. In the first ten days of May, trading volumes reached 300-360 billion rubles.

Significantly decreased and the number of transactions. If last week an average of 21 thousand transactions with the US dollar and almost 48 thousand transactions with the yuan were made per day, then this week the number decreased to 15.4 thousand and 33 thousand transactions, respectively. At the same time, the size of the average transaction with the Chinese currency increased from 2.15 million to 3.5 million rubles, and with the American one it remained near the values ​​of the previous week, about 4.2 million rubles.

Low activity is observed, despite the approaching peak of the main tax payments on May 29. Usually at this time there was an increase in the activity of foreign exchange trading, but starting from April, the boundaries began to blur, which may be due to a decrease in the supply of foreign currency from exporters. This is discussed in the review of financial market risks (.pdf) noted the Central Bank, according to which in April such sales fell by 42%, to $ 7 billion. Market participants do not exclude that in May companies also refrain from actively selling foreign currency. According to Sergey Konygin, senior economist at Sinara investment bank, exporters have accumulated ruble balances over the past year, which they can use to pay taxes, and therefore entering the market with foreign currency is not necessary.

“Given that the ruble has been weakening in recent days, exporters have every reason to wait for a more favorable rate for settlements with the budget,” said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank.

In addition, analysts note a decrease in upcoming tax payments compared to the same indicators in April and March. According to Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, in May the volume of tax payments is 20% less than in the previous two months, hence the scale of support for the Russian currency may turn out to be more modest. As a result, the US dollar exchange rate remains in a narrow range of 79.80–80.5 rubles/$. As a result of trading on Thursday, it amounted to 80.17 rubles / $, which is only 3 kopecks. above the values ​​of the environment and 17 kopecks. higher than last Friday’s close. “In the domestic market, an equilibrium situation is maintained, when the flows for buying and selling currency are generally symmetrical,” notes Mr. Evstifeev.

However, in the next two trading days, the activity of exporters may increase, analysts do not exclude that it will support the ruble exchange rate, just as it was at the end of April (see chart). “Kommersant” dated April 29). Under such conditions, according to Mikhail Vasiliev, the dollar exchange rate may briefly move into the range of 78–79 rubles/$. But such support is unlikely to be sustainable, and therefore, in early June, he expects the dollar to return to the level of 80 rubles / $. According to Sergei Konygin, exporters will be more active in June due to dividend payments.

Vitaly Gaidaev