Export of gasoline increased in January-May by 37%

Russian oil companies, despite the sanctions, increased the export of gasoline since the beginning of the year by 37%, to 2.5 million tons, against the background of the profitability of such operations and low prices in the domestic market. After a sharp rise in wholesale prices for gasoline in May and recommendations from the Ministry of Energy to reduce exports, the oil company reduced it four times in the first week of June compared to the end of May. Wholesale prices are rising on the back of refinery repairs, rising fuel demand and plans to reduce the damper. At the current wholesale prices for gasoline, gas stations begin to incur losses, as they cannot raise retail prices as quickly.

The export of high-octane gasoline since the beginning of the year has increased by 37% compared to the same period last year, to almost 2.5 million tons, Kommersant’s interlocutors who are familiar with the statistics say. According to Kommersant, back in May, the Ministry of Energy asked oil companies to reduce exports, as well as increase supplies to the domestic market. In the first six days of June, the average daily export of gasoline actually decreased by almost four times compared to the end of May and doubled compared to June 2022, to 2.8 thousand tons. Stocks at oil depots and refineries are at the level of 1.9 million tons.

Since the beginning of the year, Russian oil companies have increased gasoline production by 2% compared to 2022, to 17.9 million tons, while fuel supplies to the domestic market decreased by almost 2%. For the first six days of June, shipments to the domestic market are 8% behind the plan and amounted to about 620 thousand tons. Compared to last year, deliveries to the domestic market decreased by a similar value. According to a Kommersant source in the oil industry, the Ministry of Energy has already threatened oil companies with restrictions on gasoline exports if supplies to the domestic market do not increase.

In June, as well as in May, the cost of AI-95 at SPIMEX continued to update its historical highs several times against the backdrop of the repair campaign of Russian refineries, as well as government plans to reduce damper payments to oil workers. So, on June 8, AI-95 went up by 1%, to almost 63 thousand rubles. per ton, AI-92 – by 0.5%, up to 55.4 thousand rubles.

The rapid growth of wholesale prices is already leading to losses for filling station operators, who have begun to gradually increase prices at filling stations, but at a significantly lower rate. According to Petromarket, the net sales margin for AI-92 and AI-95 at gas stations is minus 0.1 rubles. and minus 1.1 rubles. per liter of fuel. The average cost of gasoline over the past week rose by 0.3%, according to Rosstat. The situation on the fuel market last week was discussed at a meeting with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.

He instructed the refinery to ensure uniform and regular sales of gasoline and diesel fuel on the exchange to cover the needs of the domestic market, including independent filling stations. At the end of May, the head of the Ministry of Energy, Nikolai Shulginov, noted the stability of retail prices. “We see that the gross margin of filling stations remains at a high level, so we do not expect such a reflection in retail (due to the increase in wholesale prices.— “b”),” he said.

Russian oil companies last year faced problems with the export of oil and petroleum products due to Western sanctions against the Russian Federation for the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine. This forced oil companies to come up with alternative schemes and directions for export. The price ceiling for Russian oil products introduced on February 5 this year by the EU and the G7 (set at $100 per barrel for gasoline and diesel fuel) did not significantly affect the volume of exports, since actual prices were below the ceiling level.

Historically, the wholesale price, including the damper, expressed in currency, was 10-15% lower than the international price of gasoline in the importing country, estimates Boris Sinitsyn from Renaissance Capital. But in the second half of 2022, domestic wholesale prices, even with damper payments, were 35% below the export alternative. In May, on average, the wholesale price, taking into account the damper, was 11% lower than the export price, that is, it returned to a normal level, the expert notes. He adds that the dynamics of the wholesale price, in addition to the normalization of the discount to the netback, also reflects the weakening of the ruble since the beginning of the year.

Dmitry Kozlov