Experts note a slow recovery in the retail and office real estate market in Moscow and St. Petersburg

After the decline in the retail real estate market, a slow recovery continues. In Moscow and St. Petersburg, a gradual increase in attendance contributes to a reduction in the level of vacant and potentially empty space, mainly due to the high activity of local brands. In the office real estate segment, positive dynamics can be traced so far mainly in Moscow, where consultants record a sharp increase in absorption. In St. Petersburg, the demand for premises is still noticeably lower than last year. Although the current situation does not allow owners to raise rates in any of the markets.

The approach of the business season contributed to the seasonal increase in the attendance of shopping centers. IN Moscow On August 21–27, the Mall Index (reflects the number of visitors per 1,000 sq. m of space) increased by 5% compared to the previous week and by 4% compared to the same period last year. IN St. Petersburg the flow density turned out to be comparable to last year, and the week-to-week growth was 4%. Such data is provided by Focus Technologies. Although the gap with the attendance level of the pre-crisis 2019 remains at the level of 20–21%, Mikhail Vasiliev, head of research and consulting at Focus Technologies, draws attention to a fairly pronounced positive trend. Jumps in traffic on the eve of significant dates, according to the expert, is one of the characteristic features of consumer behavior in the “savings model”.

Trade recovery

According to the head of research and analytics department of CMWP Tatyana Divina, in shopping centers Moscow now 12% of the space is empty, another 1% is a “potential vacancy”, the space of retailers who have suspended work in Russia, formally under contract. In the same period last year, the level of classical vacancy was 11%, potential – another 11%. The latter has been almost completely replaced by local brands and companies that have re-entered the market, says Ms. Divina. The expert does not expect a significant change in the share of vacant space until the end of the year, explaining that the demand of Russian operators for retail space remains stable so far.

Vacancy in shopping malls Petersburg, according to estimates of the regional director of the department of retail real estate NF Group Evgenia Khakberdiyeva, decreased from 10.6% at the beginning of the year to 9.1% now. By the end of the third quarter, the figure may drop to 7–8%, and up to 6% for the year. The expert connects the positive dynamics with the continued interest of tenants in high-quality premises, primarily in finished premises.

Rental rates, according to Ms. Khakberdiyeva, remain stable. In the largest shopping centers Moscow they, according to her, reach 180 thousand rubles. per sq. m per year, in the district – 100 thousand rubles. per sq. m per year.

The active development of retailers is also felt in the street retail segment. Marina Markova, head of the street retail direction at Magazin Magazin, says that there are now noticeably more requests for the selection of space than a year earlier. “We attribute this to the growing trend of opening flagship stores, the emergence of new restaurant concepts,” she says.

Director of SimpleEstate Nikita Kornienko speaks of an increase in demand by 30-50% year-on-year by the end of the summer. The expert recalls that last year the market was in a state of shock, while now the overall business activity is rather recovering. The expert estimates the existing vacancy at 10%, calling the figure “normal market level”. Rent rates, he said, are falling on overpriced premises.

office gain

in the office market Moscow feeling revived. In July-August, according to Irina Khoroshilova, head of the CORE.XP office real estate department, 480,000 sq. m. m is twice the value for the same period last year. The vacancy rate, she said, is now at 9.4%, showing a downward trend given the strong demand.

Representatives of the financial and IT sectors, government agencies are primarily interested in the premises, adds Veronika Lezhneva, Regional Director of the Nikoliers Research Department.

IN St. Petersburg the volume of absorption of office real estate in the first nine months of the year, according to the forecasts of the director of the market research department of Maris Alena Volobueva, will be about 110 thousand square meters. m – this is almost two times lower than the value for the same period last year (196 thousand sq. m.). Nevertheless, the expert calls the existing demand for premises rather stable, speaking about the activity of the oil and gas and IT sectors, and construction industry enterprises. They are looking for offices mainly in the Central, Moscow and Petrograd districts of the city. 10.3% of the space remains vacant on the market.

The weighted average rental rate for class A offices in Moscow, according to Mrs. Lezhneva, is now 26.5 thousand rubles. per sq. m per year, B – 17.6 thousand rubles. A downward trend in indicators is observed in the case of objects located outside the Moscow Ring Road. Alena Volobueva adds that in St. Petersburg the cost of renting offices remains stable.

Alexandra Mertsalova