European nuclear power plants stock up on nuclear fuel. Report from the EU nuclear regulator

The EU has returned to its strategy of increasing nuclear fuel reserves for the first time in eight years. Owners of Soviet-type reactors are stockpiling fuel due to fears of sanctions on supplies from Russia. At the same time, operators of nuclear power plants of Western design are actively moving away from purchasing uranium from the Russian Federation, which is why the volume of its supplies to the EU in 2022 fell by 16% year-on-year. Rosatom notes that deliveries are made under long-term contracts and the decrease in volumes may be due to the delivery schedule and market prices for products.

Kommersant got acquainted with the annual report of the Euratom Supply Agency (the regulator of the nuclear industry in the EU). According to the document (released the other day, Kommersant has it), in 2022, operators of European nuclear power plants bought more uranium for the first time in eight years than they loaded into reactors. Energy companies purchased 11.72 thousand tons of uranium, and loaded 10.99 thousand tons into reactors. A number of companies have increased purchases as part of measures to ensure supply security, the report said. At the end of 2022, uranium reserves in the EU amounted to 35.71 thousand tons, which is enough to produce fuel for three years.

At the same time, nuclear power plant operators sought to avoid supplies from the Russian Federation. The EU reduced the total volume of imports of natural uranium from Russia by 16% year-on-year, to 1.98 thousand tons. As a result, the country took fourth place in terms of supply volume with a share of 16.89% (minus 2.8 percentage points). A number of energy companies have replaced Russian uranium with supplies from Kazakhstan, Canada and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan, the leader in sales in 2022, increased supplies to the EU by 14%, to 3.14 thousand tons. Canada, which took third place, increased exports by 50%, to 2.58 thousand tons. Uzbekistan increased sales by 171%, to 441 tons. Niger took second place in terms of supply volume (2.58 thousand tons of uranium). At the same time, it was suppliers from the CIS countries (Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) who offered the most attractive prices: the average price of uranium in long-term contracts in 2022 was €101 per 1 kg of uranium oxide, and in the CIS countries it was 23% lower.

Rosatom does not comment on uranium prices or make forecasts. The state corporation said that supplies of raw materials from the Russian Federation are carried out under long-term contracts and the decrease in volumes in 2022 does not mean a reduction in the total volume of the contract, but may be related to the delivery schedule, as well as market prices for products. Rosatom also noted that it ranks second in the world in uranium production, first in uranium enrichment and third in fuel fabrication. The company’s portfolio now includes 33 orders for the construction of nuclear units in ten countries. “The implementation of such large-scale tasks will require providing them with the necessary resources,” they say there.

Judging by the report of the Euratom Supply Agency, not everyone managed to escape from Russian supplies. Thus, NPP operators using Russian VVER reactors buy finished nuclear fuel from Rosatom. VVER reactors are located in Slovakia (2 GW), Czech Republic (4 GW), Hungary (2 GW), Finland (1 GW) and Bulgaria (2 GW). The fuel purchase contract also includes services for uranium conversion (converting uranium into UF6 hexafluoride) and uranium enrichment (increasing the share of the 235U isotope to 2–6%).

The document notes that companies with VVER reactors in 2022 increased their purchases of enrichment services from Russia by 30%, and conversion services by 22%. VVER power units are increasing reserves to “hold on until alternative fuel becomes available,” the report says. The report’s authors call dependence on Rosatom a “significant vulnerability.”

In the total volume of supplies of conversion services, Russia reduced its share by 20% year-on-year, to 2.44 thousand tons. In the uranium enrichment segment, Rosatom increased supplies by 1.5%, to 3.24 million units of separation work (SWU). Russia’s share in the conversion segment to the EU in 2022 is 22.3%, in the enrichment segment – 30%. The report states that energy companies with Western-type nuclear power plants have reduced the purchase of enrichment services in the Russian Federation by 16%. The lion’s share of enrichment needs in 2022 was covered by the French Orano and the European concern Urenco.

In the EU countries, there is an obvious trend towards abandoning Russian uranium products, but it will not be possible to replace Russia as quickly as in oil and gas, says Anton Khlopkov, director of the Center for Energy and Security. Europe cannot yet produce fuel for VVER reactors in the required volume independently or in cooperation with American companies. According to some Western estimates, it will take five to ten years to replace Rosatom in the uranium products market.

So far, the trend towards reducing demand for uranium in Europe has not been reversed, notes independent analyst Boris Sinitsyn. If two years ago the need for uranium for 2025 was estimated at 14.6 thousand tons, now it is 8% lower. At the same time, production in Canada has increased in two years, and production growth in Kazakhstan is planned in the next few years. One-time factors, mainly related to the risks of supply disruptions, influenced the increase in the spot price of uranium in 2023, but there is no structural shortage of uranium on the world market and will not be in the coming years.

Polina Smertina