Electricity closed the minus to the plus – Newspaper Kommersant No. 3 (7448) dated 01/11/2023
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The volume of electricity production in the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals, which account for approximately 80% of the country’s total generation, according to Kommersant’s information, in 2022 remained at the level of 2021. Output grew at a faster pace in the first half of the year, but began to fall since the summer due to a halt in exports to the EU and a slowdown in the economy, analysts say. The trend will inevitably lead to a deterioration in the financial performance of energy companies, experts warn, pointing to an increase in operating costs and equipment costs.
“Kommersant” got acquainted with the operational data on the production of electricity in the Unified Energy System (UES) of Russia in 2022. The total electricity generation in the first price zone of the energy market (the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals, approximately 80% of the country’s generation), according to the results of last year, according to Kommersant’s estimates, remained practically unchanged, having decreased by only 0.2% year-on-year, to about 850 billion kWh Production was reduced only by thermal power plants, the interlocutors of Kommersant point out. The System Operator (SO, power system dispatcher) refused to provide Kommersant with more accurate data.
Electricity production in the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals has been growing at a faster pace since the beginning of 2022, including due to an increase in exports to the EU countries amid high prices on the European energy exchange. Production began to fall sharply since June after the suspension of supplies to Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia (see Kommersant of December 22, 2022). In December, output in the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals fell by about 1% yoy. The decrease in the indicator, according to the interlocutors of Kommersant, was also associated with the temperature factor.
In the second price zone (Siberia), electricity production, on the contrary, steadily increased. At the end of 2022, the indicator grew by more than 1%, exceeding 219 billion kWh. In Siberia, at the same time, the load of HPPs decreased (by more than 10% yoy) due to record low water content, but the production of thermal power plants increased by almost a third yoy. Generating companies increased production as demand increased in the region: consumption grew due to the launch of Rusal’s Taishet aluminum plant, the growth of rail transportation, and also thanks to data processing centers (engaged in cryptocurrency mining).
Based on the results of 2022, one can expect an increase in the revenue of power engineers from the sale of electricity on the day-ahead market (DAM, the sector of trade in actually generated kilowatt-hours), including due to rising prices on the exchange. In the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals, income in the RSV segment, according to Kommersant’s estimates, amounted to about 860 billion rubles, and in Siberia – over 208 billion rubles. Revenue from the sale of capacity, according to Kommersant, for 11 months amounted to about 869 billion rubles.
At the same time, energy companies (both generating and grid) may face a deterioration in financial performance, independent analyst Yuri Melnikov believes. In his opinion, this will primarily happen due to the outstripping growth of costs (operating costs are growing, investment projects are becoming more expensive due to rising prices for equipment, components and work), and not due to a drop in revenue growth.
The drop in generation in the European part of the Russian Federation and the Urals is due to the fact that a slight increase in domestic electricity consumption did not compensate for the drop in exports, Alexei Faddeev from IPEM believes. Over the three quarters of 2022, electricity consumption in the Unified Energy System of Russia increased by 1.3%, but electricity exports to the EU decreased significantly, which in 2021 amounted to about 14 billion kWh, or 1.6% of electricity generation in the UES of Russia.
The “Council of Energy Producers” (unites the largest generating companies of the Russian Federation) did not comment on the dynamics of electricity production. They only noted that the consumption of electricity in various interconnected energy systems of the country was of a multidirectional nature: “In general, for 2022, the increase in consumption is 1.5%, taking into account the weather factor, about 2%.
The total volume of electricity consumption in the UES of Russia in 2022, according to SO estimates, increased by 1.36% year-on-year and amounted to 1.06 trillion kWh, follows from the latest draft scheme and program for the development of Russia’s energy systems until 2028. In the Far East, demand increased by 3.86% to 45.5 billion kWh. The System Operator hopes that demand will continue to grow: in 2023, in the UES of Russia, the figure may increase by 1.48%, to 1.08 trillion kWh, and in the Far East – by 4.6%, to 46.57 billion kWh The Community of Energy Consumers (which unites industrial consumers of electricity) believes that the forecast for the growth of electricity consumption in 2023 seems to be “moderately optimistic”.
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