Economists predicted a decline in Russian GDP by 6.5%, while official expectations were 0.8-2.1%

Alfa-Bank economists Natalia Orlova and Irina Rostovtseva predicted a 6.5% fall in Russia’s GDP in 2023, which is worse than the forecast of the Central Bank, which expects the economy to fall by 2.1% next year, and the Ministry of Economy (by 0.8%). This is stated in review economists.

The fall in GDP is due, in particular, to migration in February-March: we can talk about the departure of about 1.5% of the entire labor force of the Russian Federation. Also, the economy is negatively affected by export restrictions and reduced investment. A review by Alfa-Bank employees says that the EU share in Russian exports has decreased, but still stands at about 30%. According to experts, in 2023, investments in fixed assets may be reduced by 10%.

Economists believe that in 2023 the ruble exchange rate may weaken to the level of 70–80 rubles/$. In their opinion, this may happen due to high uncertainty in the market, sanctions and logistical problems. At the same time, Alfa-Bank’s economists do not expect inflation to accelerate and forecast it next year at 6%.