Economists do not expect sharp jumps in the national currency before the elections
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This week, the national currency will trade at its usual levels, Kommersant FM’s interlocutors say. Before the holidays, the ruble strengthened to almost 90.5 rubles. per dollar, and at the beginning of March the American currency cost almost 92 rubles.
Nobody has canceled the obligation of exporters to sell foreign exchange earnings on the stock exchange, and this will maintain the exchange rate in March, says Evgeniy Nadorshin, chief economist of the PF-Capital consulting company: “All decisions to ensure that the ruble at least does not depreciate significantly were made yet in 2023. If the strengthening continues this week, it will not be surprising – the entire system has come together for six months to ensure a certain stability in the market.
There are now a lot of factors holding back the potential depreciation of the ruble. Anyone who sells currency on the market understands well why he is doing it. I don’t expect anything like this after the elections. Our imports are picking up, and they will clearly put pressure on the exchange rate. After the elections, the ruble may become cheaper. How fast is an open question. It depends on how exporters will be loaded with sales and what decisions they will make.”
Sberbank CIB analysts predicted a temporary strengthening of the ruble in March to 87.5 rubles. for a dollar. This may be affected by tax payments from large exporters and a decrease in demand for foreign currency due to the repurchase of assets from foreign investors, writes RBC Investments. But after such strengthening, the demand for the dollar will increase again, then the ruble will return to the 90 ruble mark. already in April. However, there are no prerequisites for a noticeable weakening of the Russian currency after the elections, says Sofya Donets, chief economist for Russia and the CIS at Renaissance Capital: “On the one hand, some nervousness cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, all this will overlap during the middle of the month.
The middle of the month is about stabilization, when there is no dominant demand or supply of currency. If we do not expect sharp changes in political conditions, we will simply be talking about volatility around the levels that have developed over the past two months. Oil prices looked good during this period. This should now shape the market for March.
Unless you have some super knowledge, there are probably no objective reasons to buy foreign currency now. Some volatility is possible. But this is a game for those who want to constantly be in the market. I think that it’s probably not worth giving any advice for ordinary investors this week.”
Recently, the Central Bank again extended restrictions on the withdrawal of cash foreign currency, this time until September 9. Russians whose account or deposit was opened before March 9, 2022 cannot withdraw currency worth more than $10 thousand in equivalent.
Everything is clear with us – Telegram channel “Kommersant FM”.
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