due to rate increases, banks will lose 600 billion rubles in interest income – Kommersant

Against the backdrop of an increase in the key rate from 7.5% to 15% within one year, Russian banks will lose approximately 0.6 trillion rubles. net interest income. This is equivalent to 0.5 (pp) net interest margin. These figures are given in review Bank of Russia.

The Central Bank’s report notes that with a high net interest margin of 4.8%, such indicators will not significantly affect the financial position of banks. However, the actual impact may be greater for certain behavioral effects, namely the flow of funds from current accounts to deposits.

According to the regulator, interest rate risk against the backdrop of rising rates has already partially materialized in a decrease in the value of bonds. The negative revaluation of the trading portfolio of ruble bonds amounted to RUB 299.6 billion. (1.6% of the nominal value, or 2.0% of the capital of the banking sector).

“The slight revaluation of the banks’ bond portfolio was due to the high share of government securities and securities with a floating coupon, as well as accounting for the majority of bonds at amortized cost (held until maturity and not subject to revaluation),” the Central Bank report says.

In the event of a further increase in the key rate, the Central Bank estimated the interest rate risk on the banking portfolio by 1 percentage point. at 1.6-3.6% of annual net interest income. Therefore, banks are recommended to improve the quality of interest rate risk management.

In July, against the background of pro-inflationary risks and the weakening of the ruble, the Central Bank raised the key rate to 8.5%, in August – to 12%, in September – to 13%, in October – to 15%. That is, during the period from July to October the rate doubled: from 7.5% to 15%. Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina statedthat before the new year the rate may be increased again.

Anastasia Larina